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Sensex, Nifty open at fresh Record high; Coal India top gainer

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Equity benchmarks hit a fresh record high again in the opening on Tuesday, with the Sensex trading above 34,400 level.

State-owned power producer SJVN said its board has approved a buyback proposal comprising 5 percent stake for over Rs 801 crore.

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As on January 5, 2018, the promoters held 89.73 percent stake in the company, a joint venture of the Government of India and the Government of Himachal Pradesh.

Foreign investors and financial institutions held 3.48 percent and 2.66 percent respectively. Others including public and public bodies corporate held 4.14 percent.

“The Board of Directors of the company in their meeting held on January 8, 2018, has unanimously approved inter-alia the proposal to buyback not exceeding 20,68,31,325 equity shares…” SJVN said in a BSE filing.


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Tata Steel FY18` Q3 production Down Marginally at 3.24 mt

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Tata Steel provisional India production in the Q3 period ending in December 2017 was marginally down at 3.24 million ton compared to 3.28 million ton in the corresponding quarter of 2016-17. But in the nine-month period from April-December of FY 18, the company’s India production was higher by 10.6 percent at 9.23 million ton against 8.34 million tonne production in the previous comparable period, a Tata Steel release said.

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However, the company’s European operation production in the Q3 quarter was marginally higher at 2.68 million ton (provisional) against 2.64 million ton in the comparable period in the FY 17. The steel sales both in India and Europe operations were higher during the quarter (FY 18 Q3 period) at 3.3 million ton and 2.41 million ton respectively. The company said Tata Steel Kalinganagar successfully ramped-up to 100 percent capacity utilization for commercial saleable steel production. Tata Steel said it has achieved highest ever quarterly sales in automotive and special products segment with a growth of 6 percent QoQ and 26 percent YoY.


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India has no plan now to Raise import Tax on Sugar, Government says

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India has no immediate plan to raise import tax on sugar as the government does not see prospects of imports from Pakistan as of now, a senior government official said on Monday.

Though the availability of sugar this year remains as tight as last year, India will have enough sugar to meet domestic demand without overseas purchases, the official, who was not authorized to speak to the media, said.

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The world’s biggest consumer is likely to start the new marketing year on Oct. 1, 2018, with an opening stock of 4 million tonnes, almost unchanged from a year ago, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement. 


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Crude Oil likely to hit $80/bbl mark in 2018; 10 Stocks which are likely to get impacted the most

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The rally which started at the crude oil price may not be over yet. Most experts tracking the commodity sees it heading towards $80-90/bbl in the next two years.

The crude which was trading around $50/bbl at the beginning of the year 2017 climbed to $68/bbl in the first week of January 2018, resulting in a rally of over 20 percent in the crude oil prices in the last one year.

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Higher oil prices do pose a concern for fuel importing countries like India which would have an adverse impact on the economy as well as companies which used crude as part of the raw material in their product.

The rally which started at the crude oil price may not be over yet. Most experts tracking the commodity sees it heading towards $80-90/bbl in the next two years.

The rise in global crude prices is backed by output cut by OPEC & Russia, freezing weather in the US which has fuelled demand for heating oil. Strong economic data from major economies, and falling crude oil inventories coupled with Middle East tensions will keep the commodity on trader’s radar.

The maintained bullish view on Brent crude oil prices and expect the prices to trade between US$80-90/bbl during the next two years. The positive bias on crude is mainly supported by OPEC’s (along with Russia, non-OPEC member) decision to maintain production cuts throughout 2018 which will partly balance demand-supply situation.

Apart from that declining US crude inventory levels, rising global oil demand, seasonal factors (winters), higher refining margins leading to higher crude demand from refiners, large speculative position building up, geopolitical concerns, etc. are all contributing to higher crude oil prices.

Even the domestic fuel prices have been steadily rising for several months as global crude prices have soared almost 40 percent in the last few months. The rise in crude oil prices has a bigger implication for India – first, it does put a strain on countries current account deficit, and the other major worry is that it leads to rise in inflation. Higher oil price is posing a concern as a continuous rise in crude oil price is expected to have adverse macroeconomic implications. It may not just fuel inflation, but may also deteriorate the twin deficits (current account deficit and fiscal deficit).

As RBI is already keeping a close eye on inflation, it may give limited room for RBI to slash rates in coming months and this may affect corporate profits, even turn the investment sentiment negative.

Technical View:

Crude oil formed an inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern on the weekly chart, which is a bullish pattern. The pattern is formed on the weekly chart, which indicates that crude could be in a medium to long-term bull run.

The immediate support comes around $55 followed by $52, which could hold any dips in the prices. Medium-term Supports are around $42/40.

Prices are also trading well above the 8,20 and 50 week moving averages which indicate positive momentum to continue. From the above analysis, we see prices could head higher towards our minimum target of $68 and the inverse head and shoulder pattern targets come around $80.

Here’s we collated a list of stocks which are likely to get impacted adversely or positively by a rise in crude oil prices:

ONGC: Positive

The breakeven cost for ONGC is $45-47 per barrel. And, if the crude oil prices remain above $47 per barrel it will benefit ONGC.

HPCL, BPCL: Negative

OMCs like HPCL and BPCL will be hit by rising crude price as we believe they will not be able to pass on the entire rise to the end consumer as the government would not like to make diesel/ petrol costlier at this juncture.

Reliance Industries Ltd: Positive

Reliance Industries (RIL) derives more than 50 percent of profit from refining which is benefitted from rising the crude price. Hence we believe the rising crude price will improve the bottom line for the oil & gas major.

Disclosure: Reliance Industries Ltd. is the sole beneficiary of Independent Media Trust which controls Network18 Media & Investments Ltd.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Positive

Rising crude price will improve GRM’s for the company and we also believe that rising crude prices will lead to inventory gains for the company.

CPCL, MRPL: Simple refiners like CPCL and MRPL will see pressure on GRMs, operating cost will increase, interest cost will go higher due to the higher working capital requirement, etc.

IOC: Negative

Q3 Net Profit Margin may slightly weigh on the downstream (Oil Marketing) business but the impact will be limited as domestic fuel prices are linked to international rates.

Meanwhile, inventory gains due to higher crude prices in last 3 months can also lead to higher earnings. The stock price has corrected from its peak and taking support around 380-390 levels. We Maintain Buy with Target Price of Rs450.

Aviation Stocks (Jet Airways, SpiceJet, InterGlobe Aviation):

The rise in ATF prices will have a negative impact on operating margins of aviation stocks such as Jet Airways, SpiceJet, InterGlobe Aviation as fuel bills account for almost 50 percent of the operating costs of an airline.

However, having said that, the overall growth trends (40-month double-digit growth in Pass segment) in the sector outpaces any such negatives. Lately, the stock prices have moved steadily higher, we recommend to book profits & wait for dips (5-10%) to re-enter in them. (Neutral View)


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बाजार हुआ महंगा, सतर्क होकर लगाएं पैसा

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भारतीय बाजरों में ग्लोबल ट्रेंड का असर देखने को मिल रहा है। बाजार में तेजी जारी रहने को संकेत हैं। ट्रेडर्स के लिए बाजार में मौके हैं लेकिन निवेशकों के लिए बाजार अभी भी महंगा है। किसीकिसी सेक्टर में खरीदारी का मौका है लेकिन लंबे नजरिये से पैसे लगाने वालों के लिए थोड़ा सतर्क रहना ही ज्यादा ठीक होगा।

फार्मा सेक्टर पर बात करते हुए उदयन मुखर्जी ने कहा कि फार्मा शेयरों में अभी भी काफी उतारचढ़ाव देखने को मिल रहा है लेकिन इस सेक्टर के सन फार्मा, ल्युपिन जैसे अच्छे शेयरों को वैल्युएशन बॉटम शायद बन चुका है। किसी गिरावट पर फार्मा शेयरों में लंबे नजरिए से खऱीदारी करें। फार्मा सेक्टर के लिए 2018 काफी अच्छा रहेगा।

इस बार के बजट में ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों पर फोकस रहेगा। ऐसे में निवेशकों को सलाह है कि वे ग्रामीण इकोनॉमी से जुड़े शेयरों पर फोकस करें। इसके अलावा बजट के पहले इंफ्रा और रेलवे शेयरों पर भी दांव लगाया जा सकता है।

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RBI introduces new Rs 10 Note in Chocolate brown color

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The Reserve Bank will soon bring into circulation new Rs 10 denomination banknotes in chocolate brown color, which will have India’s cultural heritage Konark Sun Temple as a motif on the reverse side. The central bank will shortly issue Rs 10 denomination banknotes in the Mahatma Gandhi (new) series, bearing the signature of Urjit R Patel, Governor, RBI, it said in a release. The base color of the note is chocolate brown, it said.

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“The new denomination has the motif of Sun Temple, Konark on the reverse, depicting the country’s cultural heritage,” RBI said. Among the salient features of the banknotes, on the obverse (front) the note will bear the portrait of Mahatma Gandhi at the center, the Ashoka Pillar emblem on the right, watermarks and number panel with numerals growing from small to big on the top left side and bottom right side.

On the reverse (back), it will carry the year of printing on the left, a Swachh Bharat logo with the slogan, language panel, the motif of Sun Temple and denominational numeral 10 in Hindi script Devnagari. The dimension of the banknote will be 63 mm by 123 mm. “All the banknotes in the denomination of Rs 10 issued by the Reserve Bank in the earlier series will continue to be legal tender,” it said.


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Sensex extends Gain to over 200 points, Nifty above 10,600; Sun Pharma up 4%

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Sobha surged 10 percent post strong operational performance in Q3. Prestige Estates also gained 3.5 percent.

Equity benchmarks extended their gains from the opening minutes, with the Sensex gaining over 200 points, while the Nifty was up over half a percent.

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At 10:17 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 202.87 points or 0.59% at 34356.72, and the Nifty up 56.60 points or 0.54% at 10615.50. The market breadth is positive as 1661 shares have advanced, against a decline of 753 shares, while 373 shares are unchanged.

Sun Pharma, Infosys, and Lupin gained the most on both indices, while Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints lost the most.


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Benchmark indices Open at record highs; Nifty above 10,600, Sensex up 160 pts

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Sobha surged 10 percent post strong operational performance in Q3. Prestige Estates also gained 3.5 percent.

Shares of Larsen and Toubro (L&T) touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,330.10, rising more than 1 percent in early trade as it has won orders worth Rs 2,265 crore.

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The Transportation Infrastructure and Water & Effluent Treatment businesses of L&T Construction have jointly bagged three EPC orders worth Rs 2,265 crore from Andhra Pradesh Capital Region Development Authority (APCRDA).

The scope of work includes investigation, design & construction of roads, drains, culverts, water supply, sewerage, sewerage treatment plants, utility ducts for power & ICT, reuse waterline & avenue plantation for land pooling schemes in zones – 6, 7 and 10 areas of Amaravati Capital City.

9:29 am Pre-sales data: Realty firm Sobha’s sales bookings increased by 92 percent to Rs 750.9 crore during the third quarter this fiscal on higher volumes and better average realization.

The Bengaluru-based developer had sold properties worth Rs 390.8 crore in the year-ago period.

According to an operational update, Sobha sold 9,33,365 sq ft (square feet) area during the third quarter, up 52 percent from 6,13,652 sq ft in the same period last fiscal.

The average price realization increased to Rs 8,045 per sq ft from Rs 6,369 per sq ft during the period under review.


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INDIAN STOCK MARKET TODAY’S OPENING BELL 8 January 2018 – by Ripples Advisory Private Limited

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