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Top intraday trading ideas for afternoon trade for Tuesday, 26 September 2017

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The Nifty50 index was trading below 9,850 in the afternoon trade on Tuesday following selling in frontline bluechip counters.

Ripples Advisory Private Limited, Indore collated a list of trading ideas from various experts and here’s what they had recommended:

Bata India is a ‘Sell’ call with a target price of Rs 677 and a stop loss of Rs 701.

Divi’s Lab is a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 995 and a stop loss of Rs 960.

Maruti Suzuki India is a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 8,185 and a stop loss of Rs 7,830.

Godrej Industries is a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 625 and a stop loss of Rs 550.

Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts is a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 190 and a stop loss of Rs 157.

Amara Raja Batteries is a ‘Sell’ call with a target price of Rs 696 and a stop loss of Rs 769.

 

HPCL makes its first U.S. oil purchase

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Indian state refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp has made its first purchase of U.S. oil, buying high-sulfur crude Mars in a tender, company chairman M. K. Surana said on Monday.

Earlier Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp, both state refiners, had purchased the U.S. oil through tenders.

HPCL has bought 1 million barrels of Mars oil from trader Trafigura for delivery in December at the southern Indian port of Vizag, he said.

Why the Rupee could touch 66 in the next four months

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Geopolitical developments on the Korean peninsula need to be closely followed as it could prove to be a trigger for a sudden spike in USD/INR

The rupee on Monday suffered another blow to plunge to a six-month low of 65.10 against the US dollar after heavy buying of the US currency and concerns on the macroeconomic front. This was the weakest closing for the home currency since March 24, when it had ended at 65.41 against the greenback. Besides panic dollar buying by corporates and importers, fears over fund outflows from domestic capital market led to weakened forex market sentiment against the backdrop of imminent Fed rate hike and unwinding of its stimulus measures amid unsupportive global factors. This author explains why the rupee could fall to 66 levels in the near term as said by Ripples Advisory Private Limited, Indore.

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After a protracted phase of low volatility, USD/INR broke through the key resistance at 64.35 last week due to a combination of global and domestic factors. Rupee saw the biggest weekly decline in 11 months and it was one of the worst performing Emerging Market (EM) currencies in this period. The move was not entirely unexpected as the short positioning in USD/INR was overstretched both onshore as well as offshore and an unwinding of carrying trade was on the cards. You can also subscribe the daily news and intraday tips from here.


On the global front, the US Federal Reserve dot plot indicated that twelve out of sixteen members are expecting a 25bps rate hike by the end of 2017. The probability of a December hike has risen to 63% from 38% a week ago. The US Federal Reserve also announced that the process of reduction of its balance sheet would get underway in October. This has pushed the US yields higher and has caused the US Dollar to strengthen especially against the EM currencies. One needs to closely track the US yields and difference between the 10y and 2y US yields. As the yields head higher and the 10s-2s spread widens (indicating a rise in inflation expectations and steepening of the yield curve), it could push the US Dollar higher especially against Asian and EM currencies. The tax plan to be unveiled by the Trump administration on 25th September could also be a trigger for US yields. The tax plan could likely outline tax cuts that both Democrats and Republicans agree on and this enhances the likelihood of it passing through the Congress. The US government has averted a shutdown by postponing the Debt ceiling to December but the concerns could re-emerge towards the end of this year.

On the Domestic front, macroeconomic factors seem to be tilting against the Rupee. Widening trade deficit owing to sharper pickup in imports (on account demonetization and GST supply shock) than exports and concerns over the government meeting its fiscal deficit target for the year could weigh on the Rupee. There is uncertainty around center’s indirect tax collections due to transition to GST and if additional fiscal measures are introduced to support growth, it could weigh adversely on domestic yields which in turn could spook FPIs that have invested heavily in Indian government bonds this year. A large part of the move in the Rupee in the last week could be attributed to offshore unwinding. The 1M onshore-offshore spread which was around 4-6p until last week was -4p this week indicating tremendous unwinding of offshore carry positions. It will be interesting to see what is the stance of the central bank when there is pressure on the Rupee to depreciate. When Rupee was appreciating, the central bank intervened and sought to keep Rupee in line with other Asian currencies. By doing so it has bolstered its reserves (USD 403Bn now).

The central bank, therefore, has the cushion of reserves to prevent Rupee from depreciating this time around unlike in 2013. It also has the option of intervening in the exchange-traded currency futures market. The central bank will have to strike a delicate balance between ensuring the export competitiveness of rupee (due to Rupee strength) and inflationary pressure (due to Rupee weakness).

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Prabhu to meet stakeholders on ways to boost exports on Oct 6

Minister Suresh Prabhu

The meeting assumes significance as exporters are facing issues over the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and other matters including those of WTO.

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Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu will hold detailed deliberations with the stakeholders concerned on October 6 on ways to boost exports of goods and services. “Six groups will be formed to prepare the groundwork for that meeting. They would submit their reports to the minister, which will be discussed on October 6,” the government official, who did not want to be named, said. Get free equity tips on mobile call on 9644405056.

The groups will consist of members from a trade, the industry, and the government. The reports will be prepared on how to integrate India into the global value chain, compatibility of export schemes with the norms of World Trade Organisation (WTO), promotion of exports of labor-intensive sectors, facilitating exports of knowledge-based industries like IT and pharma, services exports and the e-commerce segment.

The meeting assumes significance as exporters are facing issues over the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and other matters including those of WTO. According to a WTO rule, when a member country’s per capita gross national income breaches the cap of USD 1,000 continuously for three years, it will not be able to extend export subsidies to traders.

Similarly, WTO member countries, including the US, Turkey, and Japan, have asked India to phase out export subsidies on textiles and apparel sectors because as per WTO data, India’s export has crossed the 3.25 percent threshold of the world trade consecutively for two years. The commerce ministry is also working on reviewing the foreign trade policy (FTP), which is unlikely to be released this month.

There were plans to announce it this month. The country’s exports recorded a double-digit growth of 10.29 percent after a gap of three months to USD 23.81 billion in August. Key sectors which recorded healthy growth last month in exports include petroleum, engineering and marine products. However, handicraft, gems and jewelry and fruits and vegetables saw contraction.

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Asia markets slip after North Korea accuses Trump of declaring war

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Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank 0.28 percent in early trade after the yen strengthened overnight as investors focused on North Korea.

 

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Asian markets were pressured in early Tuesday trade, following declines on Wall Street overnight, as the war of words between North Korea and the US escalated.

 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank 0.28 percent in early trade after the yen strengthened overnight as investors focused on North Korea.

 

Across the Korean Strait, the Kospi declined 0.32 percent as blue chiptech stocks sold off following Wall Street’s lead. Samsung Electronics was down 1.49 percent, SK Hynix tumbled 2.2 percent and LG Electronics was fell 3.2 percent.

 

Down Under, the S&P/ASX 200 wobbled around the flat line. The index edged down 0.01 percent in early trade. The 1.91 percent gain in the energy sub-index was offset by losses in retailers and telecommunication services stocks.

 

Geopolitical tensions came to the fore again overnight after North Korea’s foreign minister said U.S. President Donald Trump had declared war. Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said that meant the North could target and shoot down US bombers in return. The White House responded that the US had not declared war on the hermit state late on Monday.

 

The ramp up in saber-rattling followed Trump’s speech at the United Nations last week, where the president had warned that if forced, the US would have “no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.

 

Safe haven assets were buoyed, with spot gold held above the USD 1,300 level reached overnight. The yellow metal, often regarded as a safe haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty, traded at USD 1,309 an ounce at 8:26 a.m. HK/SIN compared with the USD 1,290 handle most of last week.

 

The Japanese currency held onto overnight gains to trade at 111.63 yen to the dollar at 8:11 a.m. HK/SIN after trading at the 112 handle during Asian trade on Monday.

 

The Yen had firmed slightly following the release of the Bank of Japan’s July minutes on Tuesday. The minutes indicated policymakers were optimistic about consumer prices, with some stating that a 2 percent inflation target was a global standard.

 

Markets stateside were jittery on Monday, with a fall in technology stocks adding to declines in major indexes. The Dow Jones industrial average shed 0.24 percent, or 53.5 points, to close at 22,296.09.

 

Analysts said North Korea’s accusation that Trump had declared war had made markets nervous.

 

“The comments have taken the wind out of the sails just when risk was looking fairly upbeat as we headed into Europe, despite the uncertainty around the elections. That said, it’s hardly panic selling and the moves look measure and contained,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG.

 

Elsewhere, the Euro edged up after retreating following the German election on Sunday. While provisional results showed German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party had the most votes, she will likely face a tough coalition negotiation. Support for a far-right party was also larger than expected. The common currency traded at $1.1853 at 8:15 a.m. HK/SIN, around its lowest levels since late August.

 

Also in politics, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Monday he would be dissolving the lower house of parliament on Sept. 28 ahead of a snap election expected on Oct. 22.

 

Investors also digested comments from New York Fed President William Dudley and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. Dudley said Monday that the central bank was on the path to slowly increasing interest rates as “temporary” factors affecting inflation faded, Reuters said. Evans adopted a more cautious tone, stating that the Fed had to wait for marked signs that prices were increasing before raising rates.

 

In corporate news, the sale of Toshiba’s memory chip unit to a group led by Bain Capital for $18 billion had yet to be signed. Toshiba had informed its banks on Monday that Apple, which is part of the consortium, had not agreed to conditions in the sale. Toshiba stock was up 0.33 percent in early trade, while most other Japanese tech stocks pulled back.

 

On the energy front, oil prices were steady after rising more than 3 percent overnight as oil producers indicated that rebalancing was gradually taking place. Brent crude tacked on 0.12 percent to trade at $59.09 a barrel, near its highest levels since mid-2015. U.S. crude shed 0.21 percent to trade at USD 52.11.

Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 3.3%, Tata Motors slips 2%

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Indian ADRs ended lower on Monday. Tata Motors slipped 2.11 percent and Infosys was down 1.95 percent.

 

Indian ADRs ended lower on Monday. In the banking space, ICICI Bank was down 2.06 percent at USD 8.57 and HDFC Bank fell 3.30 percent to USD 94.02. Subscribe free equity tips on mobile from here Call on 9644405056

In the IT space, Infosys was down 1.95 percent at USD 14.31 and Wipro shed 0.88 percent at USD 5.63.

In the other sectors, Tata Motors slipped 2.11 percent at USD 31.08 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories declined 2.79 percent at USD 36.61.

Indian Rupee opens at 6-month low of 65.24 per Dollar

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Expect the USD-INR pair to trade within the 65.05-65.35 range for today, says Ripples Advisory Private Limited, Indore


The Indian Rupee hit a six-month low Tuesday, opening lower by 14 paise at 65.24 per Dollar versus 65.10 Monday.

The Dollar has rallied a bit and emerging market currencies are on the defensive. Expect the USD-INR pair to trade within the 65.05-65.35 range for today.

The 10-year benchmark yield has corrected downwards after touching a recent high of 6.68 percent. Expect it to remain within the 6.61-6.64 percent range.

The US Dollar turned lower as investors fled to assets perceived as safe after combative comments from North Korea.

The Yen stood tall as tensions on the Korean peninsula flared-up, while the Euro struggled near a four-week low versus the Dollar.

 

Wall Street declines on tech selloff, North Korea concern

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 53.84 points, or 0.24 percent, to 22,295.75, the S&P 500 lost 5.56 points, or 0.22 percent, to 2,496.66 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.33 points, or 0.88 percent, to 6,370.59.


Wall Street dipped on Monday, as a selloff in technology shares weighed heavily on the Nasdaq, while the most recent statement from North Korea’s to Washington added to a cautious tone.

North Korea’s foreign minister said President Donald Trump had declared war on the country and it reserved the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down US bombers even if they are not in its airspace. Get free equity tips on mobile and Indian stock market best recommendations by Ripples Advisory Private Limited, Indore Call on 9644405056.

The White House disputed the declaration, calling the suggestion “absurd.”

The comments buoyed safe-haven assets, those that are favored by investors in times of crisis, with gold up 1 percent and the Japanese yen strengthened 0.26 percent versus the greenback at 111.71 per Dollar.

The North Korea narrative is not going away and the longer it remains part of the conversation, the more negative it becomes.

The CBOE Volatility index, a widely followed measure of market anxiety, hit a 2-week high of 11.21 and was last up 0.63 points at 10.22.

Tech names such as Facebook, off 4.5 percent, Microsoft, down 1.55 percent, and Apple, off 0.88 percent, were among the biggest drags on the benchmark S&P 500 index.

Apple shares flirted with correction territory following a report that the company had told suppliers to scale back shipments of parts for its upcoming iPhone X.

There has been some disappointment in the reception of Apple‘s latest iPhone release, and that is driving some concern and that is bleeding through to the supply-chain names.

The S&P technology index slid 1.42 percent, its worst daily performance in five weeks. The index remains the best performing of the 11 major S&P sectors this year, however, with a rise of nearly 23 percent.

The losses in tech were offset somewhat by a sharp climb in the energy sector, which gained 1.47 percent. The sector notched its sixteenth gain in the last 18 sessions.

Oil prices hit a more than two-year high after major producers said the global market was on its way towards rebalancing, while Turkey threatened to cut oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region towards its ports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 53.84 points, or 0.24 percent, to 22,295.75, the S&P 500 lost 5.56 points, or 0.22 percent, to 2,496.66 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.33 points, or 0.88 percent, to 6,370.59.

Genuine Parts shares jumped 5.96 percent as the best performer on the S&P 500 after the car parts distributor said it would enter the European market with a deal to buy peer Alliance Automotive Group for about $2 billion.

Allergan was up 3.40 percent after the drugmaker authorized a $2 billion buyback of its shares.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.28-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.26-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

About 6.42 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, above the 6.02 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

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26th SEPTEMBER- OPENING BELL-Rupee Weakening And FII & PRO Are Again Short, Market To Feel The Pressure

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FII & PRO has again created a short position in Index option for 114990 contracts. Indian Benchmark Index Nifty closed at 9873 after making a low of 9816. The Index was down by 0.92% from its previous day close.

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European shares inch higher as Merkel hangs on to power

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European shares edged higher in cautious trade on Monday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel secured a fourth term but saw her party weakened by a surge in support for the far-right.

At 1027 GMT both the pan-European STOXX 600 and euro zone blue chips were 0.1 percent higher – a more moderate reaction than the currency market where the euro took a hit.

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European bourses were mixed, with France’s CAC 40 down 0.1 percent, Germany’s DAX up 0.3 percent and Milan flat.

Financials were the biggest drag on European stocks while healthcare, energy, and industrials helped offset those losses.

“We had a small negative surprise”, Lionel Melin, a senior cross-asset strategist for Lyxor, said.

Some traders said they were worried the vote might lead to a new coalition government less keen on pushing eurozone integration.

French train maker Alstom rose 1.5 percent to its highest level since March 2013 after confirming on Friday it was in talks with German engineering group Siemens on a possible tie-up.

Switzerland’s ABB rose 0.6 percent on its announcement it was buying General Electric’s Industrial solutions unit in a deal worth $2.6 billion.

Shares in ABB have risen around 12 percent so far this year, in line with the broader European industrials index.

Unilever, which announced it would buy cosmetics firm Carver Korea for 2.27 billion euros ($2.71 billion), added 0.7 percent.

Unicredit slipped 0.1 percent after its deputy chairman said on Friday that the speculation about his bank wanting to take over Commerzbank was nonsense. The German bank lost 1.2 percent.