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Demonetisation was for institutional cleansing: Niti Aayog`s Bibek Debroy

Indian Stock Market

NITI Ayog member Bibek Debroy admits that demonetization was a temporary shock on growth but asserts that the economy has now climbed back. One year into the disruptive note ban, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic policy adviser says the worst is over and there are signs that things are improving now.

He also says demonetization should not be seen through a narrow cost-benefit calculus but as a move aimed at “institutional cleansing”.

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“Yes, there has been a dip, but followed by a climb back. If you look at the data, there has been a slowdown in the growth rate continuously. I have not seen any data, even remotely statistical, which suggests that demonetization has led to a more than temporary shock in terms of growth or employment,” Debroy, who heads the Economic Advisory Council revived recently by the Prime Minister, told IANS in an interview.

Debroy said demonetization should not be looked at only from an economic perspective.

“If I evaluate it with a narrow economic cost-benefit calculus, I think that would be unfair because the intention (behind the move) was not narrow economics,” Debroy said. The decision was aimed at institutional cleansing. “How do I even quantify and measure it?”

“If I look at it only with that economic lens, I will evaluate the costs and the benefits in a certain way. If I look at it with a political-economic kind of lens of cleaning up the system, I will evaluate it in a slightly different way.”

Debroy said that purely in terms of economics, one will not have to wait too long as some data, like that of direct tax collections, would come out soon which would reflect demonetization and help understand its implications.

There was “excessively high” prevalence of cash in the system till last year and the cash-to-GDP ratio has now sharply declined by almost one-third post-demonetization, he said.

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Debroy said that before demonetization, the cash-to-GDP ratio in India was almost 13 percent. “That’s excessive. It has now come down to a little over nine percent,” Debroy noted.

“A lot of the cash in India was excessive and was not yielding returns to the person who held the cash, nor was it performing the role that money performs as a multiplier.”

“I’m not comparing with developed countries but even if you compare with other countries in South Asia, India had too much cash,” he said.

As per estimates, the cash-to-GDP ratio was 5.8 percent in Bangladesh, 3.5 percent in Sri Lanka and 9.3 percent in Pakistan in 2015, whereas in India it was 13 percent.

“That excessive cash has now vanished. The money has now come into the banking system. But that does not necessarily legitimise that money. You have to subject yourself to further scrutiny,” Debroy said.

Debroy has come out with a compilation, “On the Trail of the Black”, along with his colleague Kishore Arun Desai, with contributions from several writers tracing the prevalence of corruption and evaluating its impact on society and the economy.

He admitted that every decision related to the demonetization exercise might not have been perfect.

“But we know that with the benefit of hindsight and this kind of thing had never been attempted before,” he said.

He said the biggest challenge in implementing the demonetization decision was to maintain the surprise element which was crucial.

Kishore Arun Desai, who edited the book along with Debroy, said the war against corruption was a work in progress and November 8, 2016, should not be looked at in isolation.

“We’re talking a lot about November 8, but there are a series of actions that the government has been taking ever since coming to power, starting with setting up an SIT on black money, followed by the Benami Transactions Act, an act for transparent auction of coal mines, the Income Declaration Scheme, the RERA Act and the Jan Dhan Yojana.

“We have been witnessing the overall intent of the government of cleaning up the economy across various sectors and demonetization was just a trigger and one of the boldest steps,” Desai told IANS.


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Midcap outperforms Sensex, Nifty; PSU Bank up 2% but HDFC, ITC dip

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Nifty Midcap rallied 0.9 percent on strong market breadth. About five shares advanced for every share falling on the BSE.


Aurobindo Pharma’s second quarter consolidated profit is seen rising 15 percent to Rs 695.7 crore, compared with Rs 605.6 crore in same quarter last fiscal.

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Revenue during the quarter is likely to increase 12.4 percent to Rs 4,245 crore, from Rs 3,775.5 crore in year-ago, according to an average of estimates of analysts.

EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) may increase 15.6 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,074.4 crore and margin may expand 110 basis points to 25.7 percent for the quarter ended September 2017.

Arvind share price gained nearly 3 percent as Credit Suisse has maintained outperform rating on the stock, with increased target price at Rs 540 (from Rs 450 per share) after Q2 earnings.

The July-September quarter was muted for textile business but brands segment did normally.

Triggers for further up move in stock could be continuing high revenue growth, expanding margins and re-rating.

Engineering and fashion business demerged into separate companies that would be listing next year.

The research house feels process for listing new companies may take about eight months.

Fashion business valuation suggests slight premium while textile business valued reasonable may have low downside risk.


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Indian ADRs: Dr. Reddy’s Lab, HDFC Bank gain; ICICI Bank down

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Indian ADRs ended mixed on Wednesday. HDFC Bank added 1.01 percent and ICICI Bank fell 0.43 percent.

Indian ADRs ended mixed on Wednesday. In the IT space, Wipro was up 0.79 percent at USD 5.09 and Infosys was unchanged at USD 14.64.

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In the banking space, ICICI Bank fell 0.43 percent at USD 9.34 and HDFC Bank added 1.01 percent at USD 95.59.

In the other sectors, Tata Motors was unchanged at USD 33.09 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories rose 0.92 percent at USD 36.24.


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Wall Street hits high score as videogame makers rally

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.03 percent to end at 23,563.36, while the S&P 500 gained 0.14 percent to 2,594.38. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.32 percent to 6,789.12.


Wall Street closed at a record high on Wednesday as video game makers rallied and Apple’s market value climbed above USD 900 billion.

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Take-Two Interactive Software jumped 10.58 percent after the video game maker offered a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast for the holiday quarter.

That sparked a rally among its competitors, with Activision Blizzard surging 5.89 percent and Electronic Arts adding 2.19 percent.

Buoyed by optimism about the recently released iPhone X, Apple added 0.82 percent and ended with a market capitalization of USD 905 billion, its highest ever.

More broadly, investors remained nervous about the potential outcome of the Republican plan unveiled last week that would cut corporate taxes while eliminating a range of popular tax breaks. The bill is expected to face strong opposition from interest groups.

Republicans have yet to score a major legislative win since Trump took office in January, even though the party controls both chambers of Congress as well as the White House.


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Indian Rupee opens flat at 64.94 per Dollar- GET FREE STOCK CASH TIPS FROM HERE!

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The Indian Rupee opened flat at 64.94 per Dollar on Thursday versus previous close 64.95.

Dollar consolidates on the back of positive US data. The market now awaits details of the Trump tax plan.

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The Rupee is rangebound with both buy and sell side flows. Ripples Advisory expected the USD-INR to trade in a range of 64.80-65.10 for the day.

Rising crude oil prices, fiscal worries, and continued OMOs has turned bond market bearish. Expected the 10-year benchmark bond yield to trade in a range of 6.92-6.96 percent for the day.

The Dollar slipped to a more than one-week low against the Yen, pressured by worries over possible delays to President Donald Trump’s tax reform plans.

US house of representatives speaker Paul Ryan left the door open to a possible delay in implementing a huge corporate tax cut, following a Washington Post report that his fellow Republicans in the Senate are exploring the option.


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Indian Stock Market Live: Sensex rebounds 150 pts, Nifty above 10350; RIL, banks lead

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Nifty Midcap rallied 0.9 percent on strong market breadth. About five shares advanced for every share falling on the BSE, as said by Ripples Advisory Private Limited.


The government today doubled the import duty on wheat to 20 percent to curb cheap shipments and give positive price signal to farmers in the ongoing Rabi season.

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It also imposed an import duty of 50 percent on peas to check cheaper shipments from countries like Canada.

The Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) in a notification said that it seeks “to (i) increase rate of basic customs duty on Peas, (Pisum sativum) from present Nil rate to 50 percent. (ii) increase rate of basic customs duty on wheat from 10 percent to 20 percent.”

In March, the government had imposed 10 percent import duty on wheat to contain sharp fall in local prices in view of a bumper crop of 98.38 million tonnes in 2016-17 crop year (July-June).


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9th NOVEMBER 2017- OPENING BELL- Short Term Trend Of Markets Changes To Sell, Market Witnesses Selling Pressure At Higher Levels

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The market sentiment has changed to sell as FII and PRO have sold more than average contracts in Nifty Option, As per open interest data for consecutive 2 days.They have sold 195420 contracts in 2 days. Secondly Nifty and Small Cap Index has closed below their crucial level of 10341 and 8522 respectively.

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Yesterday FII & Pro had created a short position for 45978 contracts; average sell position per day is for 43000 contracts. Thus they have created more than average sell position. So we suggest to book profit in the market and avoid buying at current levels.

Nifty Index yesterday fell by 0.45% and closed at 10303 after making low of 10286, the Index made high of 10384. Smallcap Index decline by 1.07% and closed at 8467 after making low in 8412, the Index made high in 8606.

Nifty Future is opening gap- up by 18 points against yesterday close of 10365 as indicated by SGX Nifty which is currently trading at 10383.


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Odisha for speedy resolution of Mahanadi water dispute

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Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik on Wednesday requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to expedite the issuance of notification constitution of a tribunal to resolve the Mahanadi water dispute with Chhattisgarh.

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“The delay in constituting the Tribunal has been taken advantage of by the state of Chhattisgarh in going ahead with the construction works of six barrages on the main Mahanadi River, which is likely to prejudicially affect the interests of Odisha and its inhabitants, particularly during the non-monsoon period,” said Patnaik in a letter to Modi.

The Chief Minister said the state government had filed a statutory complaint on November 19, 2016, under Section-3 of the Inter-State River Water Disputes (ISRWD) Act of 1956 seeking constitution of a Water Dispute Tribunal to resolve the water issue.

He had also requested the Prime Minister on January 28 to initiate the constitution of the tribunal.

Patnaik said the Act of 1956, as amended in 2002, mandates that if the Centre “is of the opinion that the water dispute cannot be settled by negotiations, the central government shall, within a period not exceeding one year from the date of receipt of such request by notification in the Official Gazette, constitute a water disputes Tribunal for adjudication of the water dispute.”

“Therefore, the Central Government is supposed to constitute a Tribunal before November 19,” said the Chief Minister.

He further said that the Additional Solicitor General appearing for the Centre apprised the Supreme Court that the Union Ministry of Water Resources has prepared a note for a decision by the Cabinet on the constitution of a Tribunal.


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Coal India to legally examine show cause notices served to subsidiary

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Coal India is going to “legally” examine the show cause notices issued by the Odisha government to its subsidiary – Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd – carrying a penalty of Rs 20,169 crore for violating mining plans, environmental norms, and other regulations, a top company official said on Wednesday.

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“We have to get it examined legally and we have to see what are the legal provisions,” Coal India Chairman Gopal Singh said on the sidelines of the 7th Asian Mining Congress here.

The respective deputy directors of mines in the Talcher, Rourkela, and Sambalpur circles had issued 24 notices on October 31 to the officers of mining projects of Mahanadi Coalfields. The subsidiary received those on November 1.

“The show cause notices have been issued for a total amount of Rs 20,169 crore towards compensation under section 21(5) of the Mines & Mineral Development Regulations (MMDR) Act, 1957, for production in violation of mining plan, Environmental Protection Act 1986, Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1974, and Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981…,” Coal India on Monday had said in a regulatory filing.

The miner is looking to diversify into metals mining. “We have just decided on these diversifications two-three months ago and we are still working on the modalities. We hope to ready the modalities in the next few months.

On the coal supply to power plants, Singh said: “It has never been a question of coal crisis for the power plants. Even on a date, we have 29 million tonnes of coal stock at various pit- heads. There is a problem of shifting this stock to power plants. All the transport modes have to be efficient.


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Sensex falls over 100 pts, Nifty tests 10,300; Metals lose shine

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Benchmark indices extended losses amid volatility in afternoon, with the Sensex falling 151.41 points to 33,219.35.

The 50-share NSE Nifty shed 53.10 points to 10,297.10, dragged by Reliance Industries (down 2.4 percent), Tata Motors (down 4 percent), Vedanta (4 percent), ICICI Bank (1.81 percent), HDFC (0.96 percent) and Bharti Airtel (4.14 percent).

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About 1,610 shares declined against 970 advancing shares on the BSE.

Prices of copper and nickel declined by up to Rs 5 per kg at the non-ferrous metal market today on easing demand from consuming industries.

Traders attributed the slide in copper and nickel prices to a fall in demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market.

In the national capital, copper mixed scrap and nickel plate (4×4) drifted lower by Rs 5 and Rs 3 to Rs 770-780 and Rs 382 per kg, respectively.


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