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Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank, Wipro, ICICI Bank down

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Indian ADRs ended mostly lower on Monday. ICICI Bank was down 0.70 percent and Infosys shed 0.61 percent.


Indian ADRs ended mostly lower on Monday. In the IT space, Infosys shed 0.61 percent at USD 14.62 and Wipro fell 1.62 percent to USD 5.46.

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In the banking space, ICICI Bank was down 0.70 percent at USD 8.51 and HDFC Bank declined 2.16 percent at USD 96.53.

In the other sectors, Tata Motors gained 1.49 percent at 33.28 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories was up 1.61 percent at USD 36.62.


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Dow touches 23,000 for the first time, closes at record

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“Those big, round numbers are getting easier to reach on the Dow on a percentage basis. “That’s great because every time we get a milestone like that, it seems like Mainstream America pays more attention to financial markets.”


The Dow Jones industrial average rose on Tuesday and broke above 23,000 for the first time on an intraday basis.

The index faded and closed three points shy of 23,000 as bank shares rolled over.

The Dow first crossed 22,000 for the first time just 76 days ago.

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“Those big, round numbers are getting easier to reach on the Dow on a percentage basis,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. “That’s great because every time we get a milestone like that, it seems like Mainstream America pays more attention to financial markets.”

Boeing and Caterpillar were the biggest points contributors on the Dow since Aug. 2, when the index first broke above 22,000. They added 142 points and 121 points, respectively. The two stocks have had a stellar year, rising 65.9 percent and 41.2 percent, respectively.

Home Depot and Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, contributed 97 points and 87 points to the Dow’s latest 1,000-point run.


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Nifty breaks 10,200, Sensex falls 100 pts; MAS Financial zooms 44%

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Axis Bank was the biggest loser after a sharp rise in slippages in Q2. The stock was down 6.5 percent.


10:00 am Listing: MAS Financial Services share price started off trade with a whopping premium of 44 percent on the National Stock Exchange.

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The stock has opened at Rs 660 against its issue price of Rs 459.

9:55 am Earnings Estimates: UltraTech Cement, which has Pan India presence, is expected to show a 38 percent decline year-on-year in standalone profit at Rs 370 crore but revenue from operations may grow 4 percent to Rs 6,380 crore.

According to an average of estimates of analysts, operating profit during the quarter is seen falling 2 percent to Rs 1,135 crore and margin may shrink around 100 basis points to 17.8 percent compared with same quarter last fiscal.

UltraTech numbers are not totally comparable due to the acquisition of Jaiprakash Group’s cement assets.

Analysts expect sales volumes growth of 11 percent at 12.4 million tonnes due to inorganic expansion, but Ultratech volumes are likely to be flattish.

9:50 am a Pre-opening trade: MAS Financial Services share price settled at Rs 660 in pre-opening trade on the National Stock Exchange, higher by 43.8 percent over its issue price of Rs 459.


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Auto firms likely to report muted Q2 earnings

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Automobile firms are expected to post muted earnings for the September-end quarter compared to a year ago. Higher input cost coupled with steep discounting is likely to weigh on the earnings and offset the gains the firms could have accrued because of strong volumes.

Prices of major commodities such as steel and aluminum rose by about 20% over the year-ago in Rupee terms during the quarter. High discounts were offered on segments such as medium and heavy commercial vehicles, and entry-level motorcycles and passenger vehicles, thus squeezing margins further. Feel Free to Subscribe our Indian stock market recommendations from here only!

Average estimates of five brokerage firms—QuantCapital Pvt. Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, Kotak Institutional Equities, HDFC Securities Institutional Research and IIFL Institutional Equities—indicated that companies such as Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, and Bajaj Auto may see strong volume and revenue growth but a profit decline. Conversely, Tata Motors Ltd, Hero MotoCorp Ltd, Ashok Leyland Ltd, Eicher Motors Ltd and TVS Motor Ltd may see an increase in both revenue and profits.

This quarter saw high demand on the back of an early festive season and strong rural demand due to higher government spending, near-normal monsoons and the receding impact of demonetization. The impact of goods and services tax (GST) was significantly felt in July and August as consumers advanced their purchases in anticipation of the cess in September. Sales of passenger vehicles rose 10.16% to 391,584 units, in the three months to September over a year ago, according to industry lobby Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam).

Fuelled by best-selling models such as the Baleno compact car and Brezza compact SUV, passenger revenue at car market leader Maruti Suzuki is likely to advance to Rs22,046.2 crore but net profit at the firm is expected to decline by 7% to Rs2,229 crore due to the ramp-up of the Hansalpur plant in Gujarat, according to Emkay analysts.

Ashok Leyland, India’s second largest truck and bus maker, is expected to witness the highest growth in revenue, 33%, to a Rs6,157.5 crore, among auto companies. Profit is also expected to rise 32.7% to Rs384.8 crore due to a better product mix (higher share of in-demand heavy-duty trucks) and higher scale, thus offsetting cost pressures, wrote Raghunandhan N.L. and Bibhishan Jagtap of Emkay in a 6 October note.

A robust tractor sale is estimated to boost revenue at Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd by 20% to Rs12,180.1 crore for the quarter over a year ago, but weak SUV sales are likely to drag down the company’s net profit by 9.4% to Rs1,252.9 crore from a year ago. Mahindra expects to see better growth for its UVs in the second half of the fiscal with the launch of a multi-purpose vehicle, the U321, and fresh models of the KUV, Scorpio, and XUV, wrote Saurabh Kumar and Deepika Mundra of JP Morgan Securities in a 29 September note.

Driven by an improving performance of the domestic business and reduction in foreign exchange and hedging losses at the UK subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc., consolidated net profit at Tata Motors may zoom 37% to Rs1,119 crore while revenue is expected to be up 5% to Rs69,200 crore.

Among two-wheeler firms, market leader Hero MotoCorp is set to retain the pole position with a 12.3% year-on-year rise to Rs8,760.4 crore in revenues and 1.5% rise in profits to Rs1,019 crore on the back of higher scale and rural demand. An extensive distribution network and strong rural presence will majorly benefit the company in the next two years, according to Abhishek Jain and Sneha Prashant of HDFC Securities in an 11 October note.

Bajaj Auto Ltd, which will report its earnings on Tuesday, is expected to see a 5.2% decline in profitability for the fourth straight quarter but an overall rise of 6.6% in revenues. There was a contraction in sales volumes and profits in the domestic motorcycle segment but a rise in three-wheeler business and two-wheeler exports said Hitesh Goel and Nishit Jalan of Kotak Securities in a 4 October note.

Analysts expect margin to remain under pressure in the quarters ahead, owing to commodity prices. They expect strong demand in the second half of the fiscal on the back of increased capital spending by the government in the rural economy, increasing per capita income, growing urbanization, and falling interest costs, to boost earnings in the months ahead.


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Cement maker ACC`s September-quarter profit more than doubles

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Cement maker ACC Ltd’s  quarterly profit more than doubled, beating analysts’ expectations, helped by strong cement sales volume growth.

Profit rose to 1.82 billion Rupees ($28.0 million) in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, from 897.1 million rupees a year earlier.

Cement sales volume rose about 18 percent to 5.96 million tonnes in the quarter.

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Sales volume growth was aided by capacity stabilization of the Jamul plant in Chhattisgarh and the Sindri plant in Jharkhand, the company said on Tuesday.

Analysts on average had expected the company to post a profit of 1.66 billion Rupees.


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India likely to stick to deficit target, may step up bank reform

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India is likely to stick to its fiscal deficit target of 3.2 percent of GDP and may accelerate sales of government stakes in lenders and other companies as part of an effort to recapitalize banks, an adviser to the prime minister said on Tuesday.

Many policymakers in New Delhi, including the head of a government policy think tank, have suggested fiscal stimulus is needed to boost economic growth but the central bank has warned that missing the target could hit macroeconomic stability.

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Indian stocks slid last month on reports that a stimulus package worth up to 500 billion Rupees ($7.7 billion) might be in works – one that would widen the deficit to 3.7 percent of GDP.

Surjit Bhalla, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council, told that, however, that the government has stuck to its fiscal deficit targets over the past three years and is expected to do so this year as well.

Growth slipped to its lowest level in three years in the first quarter, logging an annual rate of 5.7 percent, but Bhalla said there were signs of recovery in the economy.

GDP growth could be close to 6.5 percent for the fiscal year, he said, although that is lower than the government’s earlier estimate of about 7.3 percent.

“I am more optimistic about the economy than I was two weeks ago,” Bhalla said.

Bhalla’s comments, made during an interview at his home office in New Delhi, come amid concerns about a slowdown in the economy after a major tax reform and a shock move to ban high-denomination currency notes last November.

Modi formed the Economic Advisory Council last month to address “issues of macroeconomic importance” and present its views to the prime minister. The panel is headed by economist Bibek Debroy, a member of the federal think-tank Niti Aayog.

Bhalla said the council had made the recommendations on the fiscal deficit target and banking reform to Modi and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

($1 = 64.9050 rupees)


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Indian Rupee opens lower at 64.79 per Dollar

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The fiscal deficit is a concern from a medium-term perspective. But, if fiscal deficit largely remains under control, then INR should continue to perform well in the medium term.

The Indian Rupee opened marginally lower at 64.79 per Dollar on Tuesday against previous close 64.74.

The environment is constructive on INR. Exports pick-up provides some cheer/relief to the economy at large.

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“Fiscal deficit is a concern from a medium-term perspective. But, if fiscal deficit largely remains under control, then INR should continue to perform well in the medium term.

The Dollar held gains against the Yen and Euro, supported by a rise in Treasury yields following a report that US President Donald Trump was favoring a policy hawk as the next head of the Federal Reserve.

Markets also took heart from Trump’s conference where he reiterated that reforms to tax policy would be completed by year-end.

For interest rate market, there is no major trigger. Wholesale inflation data, already out yesterday suggests lower inflation and should be conducive to the bond market, which has already been built in the price.

For the day, expected the 10-year benchmark bond yield to trade in a really narrow range.


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Market Live: Sensex slips on profit booking but Nifty still holds 10,200 at open

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Persistent Systems, Federal Bank, Delta Corp, Radico Khaitan, DHFL, Prime Focus, Aries Agro, Jaiprakash Power and Jaiprakash Associates gained up to 20 percent.


Equity benchmarks opened mildly lower on profit booking Tuesday after the rally in three consecutive sessions.

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The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 33.86 points at 32,599.78 and the 50-share NSE Nifty fell 15.10 points to 10,215.80.

Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, GAIL, Bajaj Auto, Yes Bank, IOC and Bharti Airtel were early gainers while Wipro, Bajaj Finance, and BPCL were losers.

DCB Bank, JM Financial, and Colgate were down 1.5-2.5 percent.

Persistent Systems, Federal Bank, Delta Corp, Radico Khaitan, DHFL, Prime Focus, Aries Agro, Jaiprakash Power and Jaiprakash Associates gained up to 20 percent.


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Airtel-Tata deal beneficial but raises integration risk: S&P

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Bharti Airtel’s takeover of Tata Teleservices’ consumer mobile business will bolster its subscriber and revenue market share but could raise integration risk at a time when the Sunil Mittal-led company is also combining operations with Telenor, S&P Global Ratings has said. S&P said however that Airtel’s rating is “unaffected” by its recently-announced acquisition of the Tata Group firm. In our view, this deal increases integration risk for Bharti because the company will be simultaneously integrating the operations of Telenor India (acquired last fiscal) and Tata Teleservices over the next 12-18 months while responding to the intense competition.

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The S&P Global Ratings note added however that it expects Bharti to be able to manage the integration risk because it has successfully managed such deals in the past, particularly in the African markets. The deal will be neutral to Bharti’s leverage in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Airtel will assume a small portion of the deferred spectrum liability but not any debt obligation of Tata Teleservices. “We believe Bharti is committed to maintaining its credit profile and will continue to take steps to contain its leverage within our rating tolerances,” it pointed out. The ‘cash free and debt free’ acquisition will boost Bharti’s India subscriber and revenue market share to 31.9 percent and 40.6 percent respectively. The subscriber and revenue market share stood at 27.7 percent and 34.8 percent respectively, in the three months ended June 30, 2017.

Like many industry analysts, S&P to believes that the deal will help reduce the gap between Bharti and the new combined force of soon-to-be-merged Idea Cellular and Vodafone India. However, in the same breath, it cautioned that market share numbers are prone to significant changes, given the intense price competition in the Indian telecom sector.


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Godrej Agrovet shares rise 34% on stock market debut

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Shares of Godrej Agrovet make stock market debut at Rs615.60 per share, up 33.8% over its issue price of Rs460

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Shares of Godrej Agrovet Ltd debuted on the stock exchanges at Rs615.60 per share, up 33.8% over its issue price of Rs460. The Rs1,157 crore initial public offering (IPO) of agri-business unit of Godrej Industries Ltd was oversubscribed 95.41 times during the share sale from 4-6 October.

Analysts had said the issue was fairly priced. According to ICICI Securities Ltd, based on its 2016-17 consolidated figures, Godrej Agrovet is available at a market cap to sales of 1.8 times, price to earnings (PE) of 35.4 times and price to book of 8.8 times.

“We arrive at a fair value of Godrej Agrovet breaking the business into individual segments and identifying suitably listed peers. We arrive at a fair market cap of Rs11,000 crore for Godrej Agrovet as compared to targeted IPO market capitalization of Rs8,850 crore at an upper price band of Rs460,” the brokerage firm said in a note on 29 September.

Analysts also said that a consistent margin profile through innovative product launches amid improved operational efficiencies and optimal asset turnovers have led the company to become an extremely capital-efficient firm in the animal feed, oil palm, and crop protection verticals.

Godrej Agrovet has a diversified business model, with animal feed making up 50% of sales, oil palm 10%, crop protection 15% and dairy 20%. It is the largest palm oil producer in India and focuses on improving the productivity of farmers by innovating products and services that sustainably increase crop and livestock yields.

Godrej Agrovet owns well-established brands Milk More, Calf Starter and Excel across animal life cycles and sells the Jersey, Real Good Chicken, and Yummiez brands from its dairy and processed poultry and foods divisions, respectively.

In the past five years (FY13-17), the company’s revenue and profitability have expanded at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% and 29.8%, respectively. Proceeds from the fresh issue (Rs291.5 crore) will be used for the repayment of working capital facilities and commercial paper and the balance for general corporate purposes.


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