Browse Category: Indian Stock Market Tips

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Palaniswami Tables Salary hike bill to Double MLAs’ Salaries

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Tamil Nadu government today introduced a bill proposing to double the monthly salary and other allowances for MLAs even as the state reels under a crippling transport strike by transport workers, who are demanding better wages.

The announcement regarding the salary hike was made by Chief Minister Palaniswami last year in July and Palaniswami today tabled the bill regarding the same in the Assembly. Even then the state’s farmers were protesting in Delhi for loan waivers and better minimum support price.

According to reports, the monthly salary and other allowances paid to MLAs will be increased from the existing ₹55,000 to ₹1.05 lakh, nearly a 100 percent hike.

As per the announcement last year, allowances for the Chief Minister, Ministers, the Speaker, Deputy Speaker, the Leader of the Opposition and the Government Chief Whip have been increased with (retrospective) effect from July 1 last year.

The state government has also increased MLAs Local Area Development Fund from Rs 2 crore to 2.5 crores.

Pension for former MLAs and members of the now-defunct legislative council will be increased to Rs 20,000 from the present Rs 12,000.

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Similarly, the compensatory allowance will be Rs 10,000 from Rs 7,000 while telephone allowance has been revised to Rs 7,500 from Rs 5,000.

The constituency allowance goes up to Rs 25,000 from Rs 10,000 and consolidated allowance to Rs 5,000 from Rs 2,500.

Vehicle allowance will be upwardly revised to Rs 25,000 from 20,000. The postal allowance will continue to be same at Rs 2,500.

India`s Fuel demand rose 7.5 percent in December

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India’s fuel demand rose 7.5 percent in December compared with the same month last year.

 

Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totaled 17.39 million tonnes, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed.

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Sales of gasoline, or petrol, were 10.3 percent higher from a year earlier at 2.17 million tonnes.

Cooking gas or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales increased 6.0 percent to 2.06 million tonnes, while naphtha sales fell 1.4 percent to 1.02 million tonnes.

Sales of bitumen, used for making roads, were 3.7 percent up, while fuel oil use edged lower 10.1 percent in December.


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Crude Oil likely to hit $80/bbl mark in 2018; 10 Stocks which are likely to get impacted the most

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The rally which started at the crude oil price may not be over yet. Most experts tracking the commodity sees it heading towards $80-90/bbl in the next two years.

The crude which was trading around $50/bbl at the beginning of the year 2017 climbed to $68/bbl in the first week of January 2018, resulting in a rally of over 20 percent in the crude oil prices in the last one year.

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Higher oil prices do pose a concern for fuel importing countries like India which would have an adverse impact on the economy as well as companies which used crude as part of the raw material in their product.

The rally which started at the crude oil price may not be over yet. Most experts tracking the commodity sees it heading towards $80-90/bbl in the next two years.

The rise in global crude prices is backed by output cut by OPEC & Russia, freezing weather in the US which has fuelled demand for heating oil. Strong economic data from major economies, and falling crude oil inventories coupled with Middle East tensions will keep the commodity on trader’s radar.

The maintained bullish view on Brent crude oil prices and expect the prices to trade between US$80-90/bbl during the next two years. The positive bias on crude is mainly supported by OPEC’s (along with Russia, non-OPEC member) decision to maintain production cuts throughout 2018 which will partly balance demand-supply situation.

Apart from that declining US crude inventory levels, rising global oil demand, seasonal factors (winters), higher refining margins leading to higher crude demand from refiners, large speculative position building up, geopolitical concerns, etc. are all contributing to higher crude oil prices.

Even the domestic fuel prices have been steadily rising for several months as global crude prices have soared almost 40 percent in the last few months. The rise in crude oil prices has a bigger implication for India – first, it does put a strain on countries current account deficit, and the other major worry is that it leads to rise in inflation. Higher oil price is posing a concern as a continuous rise in crude oil price is expected to have adverse macroeconomic implications. It may not just fuel inflation, but may also deteriorate the twin deficits (current account deficit and fiscal deficit).

As RBI is already keeping a close eye on inflation, it may give limited room for RBI to slash rates in coming months and this may affect corporate profits, even turn the investment sentiment negative.

Technical View:

Crude oil formed an inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern on the weekly chart, which is a bullish pattern. The pattern is formed on the weekly chart, which indicates that crude could be in a medium to long-term bull run.

The immediate support comes around $55 followed by $52, which could hold any dips in the prices. Medium-term Supports are around $42/40.

Prices are also trading well above the 8,20 and 50 week moving averages which indicate positive momentum to continue. From the above analysis, we see prices could head higher towards our minimum target of $68 and the inverse head and shoulder pattern targets come around $80.

Here’s we collated a list of stocks which are likely to get impacted adversely or positively by a rise in crude oil prices:

ONGC: Positive

The breakeven cost for ONGC is $45-47 per barrel. And, if the crude oil prices remain above $47 per barrel it will benefit ONGC.

HPCL, BPCL: Negative

OMCs like HPCL and BPCL will be hit by rising crude price as we believe they will not be able to pass on the entire rise to the end consumer as the government would not like to make diesel/ petrol costlier at this juncture.

Reliance Industries Ltd: Positive

Reliance Industries (RIL) derives more than 50 percent of profit from refining which is benefitted from rising the crude price. Hence we believe the rising crude price will improve the bottom line for the oil & gas major.

Disclosure: Reliance Industries Ltd. is the sole beneficiary of Independent Media Trust which controls Network18 Media & Investments Ltd.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Positive

Rising crude price will improve GRM’s for the company and we also believe that rising crude prices will lead to inventory gains for the company.

CPCL, MRPL: Simple refiners like CPCL and MRPL will see pressure on GRMs, operating cost will increase, interest cost will go higher due to the higher working capital requirement, etc.

IOC: Negative

Q3 Net Profit Margin may slightly weigh on the downstream (Oil Marketing) business but the impact will be limited as domestic fuel prices are linked to international rates.

Meanwhile, inventory gains due to higher crude prices in last 3 months can also lead to higher earnings. The stock price has corrected from its peak and taking support around 380-390 levels. We Maintain Buy with Target Price of Rs450.

Aviation Stocks (Jet Airways, SpiceJet, InterGlobe Aviation):

The rise in ATF prices will have a negative impact on operating margins of aviation stocks such as Jet Airways, SpiceJet, InterGlobe Aviation as fuel bills account for almost 50 percent of the operating costs of an airline.

However, having said that, the overall growth trends (40-month double-digit growth in Pass segment) in the sector outpaces any such negatives. Lately, the stock prices have moved steadily higher, we recommend to book profits & wait for dips (5-10%) to re-enter in them. (Neutral View)


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Indian Rupee Opens Higher by 5 paise at 63.35 per Dollar

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For USD-INR the expectations for intraday range would be within 63.30-63.50, says Ripples Advisory Private Limited.


The Indian Rupee gained in the early trade on Friday. It has opened higher by 5 paise at 63.35 per Dollar versus 63.40 Thursday.

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The Dollar is under pressure and Euro has been pushing higher. This trend is also well reflected in USD-INR pair as it has been trying to go towards 63.30.

Sources expected the same trend today and the intraday range would be within 63.30-63.50.

Indian 10-year benchmark yield has receded from recent highs. Today, the expected benchmark is yield to remain within 7.32-7.36 percent range for today.

The Dollar dropped against a basket of currencies after a modest recovery.

The positive employment data gave the dollar some support overnight, but the US currency failed to hold onto gains.

Meanwhile, the euro traded near its highest levels in three years boosted by Eurozone PMI data.


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Indian ADRs: Tata Motors Gains 2%, HDFC Bank, Wipro Up

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Indian ADRs ended higher on Friday. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories rose 0.94 percent and Infosys rose 0.37 percent.

Indian ADRs ended higher on Friday. In the IT space, Infosys rose 0.37 percent at USD 16.22 and Wipro added 1.11 percent at USD 5.47.

In the banking space, HDFC Bank gained 0.63 percent at USD 101.67 and ICICI Bank was down 0.21 percent at USD 9.73.

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In the other sectors, Tata Motors advanced 2.32 percent at USD 33.07 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories rose 0.94 percent at USD 37.56.


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Wall Street Quiet on Last Trading Day of a Strong Year

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118.29 points, or 0.48 percent, on Friday to close at 24,719.22, the S&P 500 lost 13.93 points, or 0.52 percent, to 2,673.61 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 46.77 points, or 0.67 percent, to 6,903.39.

There were no fireworks on Wall Street for the last trading day of the year, as US stocks closed out their best year since 2013 on a down note, with losses in technology and financial stocks keeping equities in negative territory for the session.

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Major indexes hit a series of record highs in 2017, lifted by a combination of strong economic growth, solid corporate earnings, low-interest rates and hopes for a tax cut from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

The benchmark S&P 500 surged 19.5 percent this year, the blue-chip Dow 25.2 percent and Nasdaq 28.2 percent, as each of the major Wall Street indexes scored the best yearly performance since 2013.

The market has also remained resilient in the face of tensions in North Korea and political turmoil in Washington. The S&P 500 only saw four sessions all year with a decline of more than 1 percent while the CBOE Volatility index topped out at 15.96 on a closing basis, well below its long-term average of 20.

“The real question is what happens as we head into 2018,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

“There is an awful lot of optimism built into share prices right now that could set us up for disappointment.”

Among sectors, the technology index has been the best performer, up 37 percent and led by a gain of 87.6 percent in Micron Technology.

Telecom services, down 5.7 percent, and energy, down 3.7 percent, were the only two sectors to end the year in the red.

The rally is widely expected to extend into 2018, boosted by gains from a new law that lowers the tax burden on US corporations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118.29 points, or 0.48 percent, on Friday to close at 24,719.22, the S&P 500 lost 13.93 points, or 0.52 percent, to 2,673.61 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 46.77 points, or 0.67 percent, to 6,903.39.

For the week, the Dow lost 0.13 percent, the S&P 500 shed 0.36 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.81 percent.

Apple declined 1.08 percent after issuing a rare apology for slowing older iPhones with flagging batteries.

Goldman Sachs lost 0.68 percent after saying its fourth-quarter profit would take a USD 5 billion hit related to the new tax law.

Amazon fell 1.4 percent after Trump targeted the online retailer in a call for the country’s postal service to raise prices of shipments in order to recoup costs.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.46-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.91-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 36 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 20 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 4.94 billion shares, compared to the 6.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.


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Mega Deal between Ambanis to help Reliance Jio take on Bharti Airtel

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Jio has also mapped out a plan to address 100 million TV households across cities to ensure dense fiber penetration and last-mile connectivity.


Reliance Jio is expected to intensify its fight with rival telco Bharti Airtel as the Mukesh Ambani-owned company buys out key assets from Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications (RCom). In fact, with this acquisition, the Jio-Bharti battle will not just be limited to mobile telephony but will extend to the fiber to home space (FTTH) too.

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While Jio is focused on disrupting the market next year once again with the launch of high-speed FTTH with its offer of broadband and TV as well, Bharti Airtel is also planning to aggressively expand this business, sources said. Bharti already has over 3 million fixed-line cum broadband customers in 95 cities across India and offers IPTV (internet protocol TV). Its fiber is spread over 250,000 km across the country and internationally.

But by acquiring RCom’s fiber assets (about 178,000 km), Jio will have a much larger network, controlling more than 428,000 of inter and intra-city fiber across the country. This, sources in the know said, would enable Jio to launch its FTTH in over 30 cities across the country next year.

Jio has also mapped out a plan to address 100 million TV households across cities to ensure dense fiber penetration and last-mile connectivity.

Jio, which was virtually the sole tenant of RCom’s 43,000 towers already as part of a 10-year deal which it had signed earlier, now will become the sole owner of the assets. The deal will not only make Jio the second largest tower owner in the country with over 143,000 towers in its kitty (Jio already has 100,000 towers of its own), it will help the company deepen its 4G coverage and take on Bharti Airtel more effectively, another source pointed out. That may enable Jio to get closer to its target of acquiring another 100 million customers in the next 12 months, according to experts close to the company.


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Indian Airlines to induct 900 Aircrafts in Next Few Years

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According to official data, Indian airlines are likely to induct more than 900 aircraft in the coming years, with IndiGo alone expected to add 448 planes. As per reports, India is one of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world and most airlines have ambitious expansion plans, especially to tap the potential on regional routes.

As per data available with the civil aviation ministry, budget airlines IndiGo, SpiceJet, GoAir, and AirAsia are set to significantly expand their respective fleet sizes. Along with other carriers, the total number of aircraft to be inducted by the domestic players would be more than 900. Commenting on the issue, a Government Official told the media.

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The next seven to eight years.” “Competitor SpiceJet too is in the process of expanding its current fleet of 57 aircraft. The no-frills airline would be adding 107 B737-800s and 50 Bombardier Q400s during the 2018-2023 period,” he added.


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State-run banks` NPAs Touched Rs 7.34 lakh cr by Q2-end

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Non-performing assets (NPAs), or bad loans, of state-run banks, amounted to a staggering Rs 7.34 lakh crore by the end of second quarter of the current fiscal ended September, mostly on account of corporate defaulters, according to data furnished by the RBI and the government.

Reserve Bank of India data earlier this week, however, showed that NPAs of private sector banks stood at a much lower level of around Rs 1.03 lakh crore by the end of the July-September quarter.

“The gross non-performing assets of the public sector and private sector banks as on September 30, 2017, were Rs 7,33,974 crore and Rs 1,02,808 crore, respectively,” a Finance Ministry statement said.

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It said leading corporate entities and companies accounted for around 77 percent of the total gross NPAs of banks from domestic operations.

Among the major government-owned banks, State Bank of India had the highest level of NPAs at over Rs 1.86 lakh crore, followed by Punjab National Bank (Rs 57,630 crore), Bank of India (Rs 49,307 crore), Bank of Baroda (Rs 46,307 crore), Canara Bank (Rs 39,164 crore) and the Union Bank of India (Rs 38,286 crore).

Up to end-September, among private banks, ICICI Bank had the most amount of NPAs at Rs 44,237 crore, followed by Axis Bank (Rs 22,136 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 7,644 crore) and Jammu and Kashmir Bank (Rs 5,983 crore).

The Ministry also said that the network of Debt Recovery Tribunals (DRTs) have been expanded to 39 at present, as compared to 33 in 2016-17, which would help in reducing the pendency of cases and expedite their timely disposal.


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OPENING BELL- 21 December 2017 – Ripples Advisory Private Limited

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OPENING BELL

NIFTY UP (+29) @ 10473 (+0.27% )

BANKNIFTY UP (+33) @ 25695 (+0.12%)

SENSEX UP (+49) @ 33826 (+0.14%)


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