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India likely to stick to deficit target, may step up bank reform

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India is likely to stick to its fiscal deficit target of 3.2 percent of GDP and may accelerate sales of government stakes in lenders and other companies as part of an effort to recapitalize banks, an adviser to the prime minister said on Tuesday.

Many policymakers in New Delhi, including the head of a government policy think tank, have suggested fiscal stimulus is needed to boost economic growth but the central bank has warned that missing the target could hit macroeconomic stability.

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Indian stocks slid last month on reports that a stimulus package worth up to 500 billion Rupees ($7.7 billion) might be in works – one that would widen the deficit to 3.7 percent of GDP.

Surjit Bhalla, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council, told that, however, that the government has stuck to its fiscal deficit targets over the past three years and is expected to do so this year as well.

Growth slipped to its lowest level in three years in the first quarter, logging an annual rate of 5.7 percent, but Bhalla said there were signs of recovery in the economy.

GDP growth could be close to 6.5 percent for the fiscal year, he said, although that is lower than the government’s earlier estimate of about 7.3 percent.

“I am more optimistic about the economy than I was two weeks ago,” Bhalla said.

Bhalla’s comments, made during an interview at his home office in New Delhi, come amid concerns about a slowdown in the economy after a major tax reform and a shock move to ban high-denomination currency notes last November.

Modi formed the Economic Advisory Council last month to address “issues of macroeconomic importance” and present its views to the prime minister. The panel is headed by economist Bibek Debroy, a member of the federal think-tank Niti Aayog.

Bhalla said the council had made the recommendations on the fiscal deficit target and banking reform to Modi and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

($1 = 64.9050 rupees)


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Market Live: Sensex slips on profit booking but Nifty still holds 10,200 at open

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Persistent Systems, Federal Bank, Delta Corp, Radico Khaitan, DHFL, Prime Focus, Aries Agro, Jaiprakash Power and Jaiprakash Associates gained up to 20 percent.


Equity benchmarks opened mildly lower on profit booking Tuesday after the rally in three consecutive sessions.

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The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 33.86 points at 32,599.78 and the 50-share NSE Nifty fell 15.10 points to 10,215.80.

Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, GAIL, Bajaj Auto, Yes Bank, IOC and Bharti Airtel were early gainers while Wipro, Bajaj Finance, and BPCL were losers.

DCB Bank, JM Financial, and Colgate were down 1.5-2.5 percent.

Persistent Systems, Federal Bank, Delta Corp, Radico Khaitan, DHFL, Prime Focus, Aries Agro, Jaiprakash Power and Jaiprakash Associates gained up to 20 percent.


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Sensex up 100 pts; Nifty hovers around 10200 after hitting record high

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Nifty Midcap was up 0.6 percent or 115 points in early trade on strong market breadth.


Analysts said that 13,000-13,500 levels on Nifty look achievable in next 18 months.

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The house has an EPS estimate for Nifty at Rs 487 for FY18, Rs 602 for FY19 and Rs 693 for FY20.

The economy is looking good currently on the back of good PMI manufacturing as well as services, decent IIP and good commercial vehicle sales, so one could see a gradual pickup in second quarter FY18 as far as macros are concerned.

So, although worst seems to be over as far as macros are concerned, one should realize that the festive season has come early this time and so should not pronounce too early that this is the bottom.


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16th October 2017- OPENING BELL >> Market May See Profit Booking As Cash Market Has Little Participation

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Nifty rallied on Friday and closed near its all-time high of 10178. On the other hand, Smallcap Index has not even touched its all-time high of 8093 which is raising a concern over the market sustainability. If today Smallcap does not participate and does not trade above its all-time high, we might see profit booking in the markets.

 

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NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPEN INTEREST IN INDEX OPTION

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In last 10days, FII and DII in combined have sold stocks worth Rs. 923.44 Crore in cash segment.
FII and DII activity in Cash Segment
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In last 10days, FII and DII in combined have sold stocks worth Rs. 923.44 Crore in cash segment.


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Sensex ends down 90 pts, Nifty below 10K on caution ahead of inflation, IIP data

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The broader markets hit the most as the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices lost more than 1 percent on weak breadth. About 1,129 shares declined against 456 advancing shares on the BSE.

The market wiped out morning gains in the last couple of hours of trade and ended lower on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of September CPI inflation and August industrial output data due on Thursday. The cut in India’s growth forecast by World Bank also dampened sentiment.

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The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 90.42 points at 31,833.99, while the 50-share NSE Nifty ended below 10,000-mark, down 32.15 points at 9,984.80.

September CPI inflation is expected to surge to 3.52% from 3.36% while the rising crude oil price and volatility in Rupee may limit RBI interference on the key rate.

Additionally, earnings season will kick-start tomorrow with the result of IT heavyweight and market will take direction from the expectation & the actual numbers.

Volatility tends to remain high during the earnings season and any escalation in geopolitical tension will further worsen the situation.

Put together, traders should prepare themselves for the eventful week ahead.

The broader markets hit the most as the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices lost more than 1 percent on weak breadth. About 1,129 shares declined against 456 advancing shares on the BSE.

Meanwhile, India’s GDP may slow from 8.6 percent in 2015 to 7 percent in 2017 because of disruptions by demonetization and the GST, the World Bank has forecast and warned that subdued private investment due to internal bottlenecks could put downside pressures on the country’s potential growth. The International Monetary Fund also lowered India’s growth projection to 6.7 percent in 2017, 0.5 percentage points less than its previous two forecasts and slower than China’s 6.8 percent.

All sectoral indices barring IT ended in red today. PSU Bank index fell 2.4 percent, maybe after disappointing earnings from Lakshmi Vilas Bank that reported an 84 percent degrowth in net profit on a sharp rise in provisions for the quarter ended September 2017.

Nifty Bank, Metal, and Pharma indices were down 1-1.4 percent while IT index gained 0.55 percent ahead of TCS earnings that will be announced on Thursday after market hours. TCS, Wipro and HCL Technologies gained 1-1.7 percent but Infosys fell 0.5 percent.

Bharti Airtel tanked 5 percent and Bharti Infratel was up 2.66 percent on a media report indicated that KKR-led consortium of funds is in talks to acquire Indus Towers and Bharti Infratel.

Oil marketing companies HPCL, IOC and BPCL were up 1.5-4 percent while Vedanta, Tata Motors, Yes Bank and SBI slipped 2-2.6 percent.

In the broader space, JM Financial, DHFL, Petronet LNG, Indraprastha Gas, LIC Housing Finance, Reliance Capital, Manappuram Finance, TVS Electronics, Marksans Pharma, Graphite India, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Andhra Bank, OBC, and PNB were down 2-10 percent.

Avenue Supermarts continued its run, up 2.4 percent. Uttam Galva was up 12 percent as a media report said four companies are in a race to acquire the company.

Goa Carbon was up 3 percent as July-September quarter profit increased nearly three-fold to Rs 13.8 crore YoY while GM Breweries was up 20 percent as Q2 net profit surged 41.1 percent to Rs 15.7 crore YoY.

South Indian Bank was up 2 percent as management said the worst is behind after disappointing earnings.

On the global front, Asian markets ended higher, taking cues from signs of confidence in the US while European markets were flat at the time of writing this article.


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Factors Why Wall Street rises with Euro, Catalan fears ease for now

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.61 points, or 0.31 percent, to close at 22,830.68, the S&P 500 gained 5.91 points, or 0.23 percent, to 2,550.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 7.52 points, or 0.11 percent, to 6,587.25.


Stocks around the world rose on Tuesday as Wall Street eked out record highs ahead of earnings season, while US Treasury prices pared gains after Catalonia’s leader allowed for talks with Madrid even as he proclaimed independence from Spain.

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Oil futures rose on signs of supply rebalancing, helping shares in energy companies.

The Dollar lost ground and the Euro climbed to its highest in a week on strong data and monetary policy commentary as well as speculation on the Catalan situation.

The Euro saw a small pullback when Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont proclaimed the region’s independence, but then hit a session high after he said its effects would be suspended to allow for talks with the Madrid government.

“Anything that shows Catalonia is open to talks would be well received by European assets,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

IBEX 35 Index futures were up 1.1 percent on Tuesday afternoon after Madrid’s IBEX stock index closed down 0.9 percent in the regular session.

The three major Wall Street indexes scaled new record highs, helped by gains in energy stocks and a 4.5 percent rise in shares of Wal-Mart on the back of the company’s $20 billion share buyback plan.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.61 points, or 0.31 percent, to close at 22,830.68, the S&P 500 gained 5.91 points, or 0.23 percent, to 2,550.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 7.52 points, or 0.11 percent, to 6,587.25.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.44 percent, said Ripples Financial Advisory.

“If you really want to be bearish about this market, there’s no shortage of macro events you could point to whether it’s North Korea or China, Catalonia or the Trump dynamics. So far the market has looked through every one of them,” said Nathan Thooft, senior managing director of asset allocation at Manulife Asset Management in Boston.

“It’s this game of looking at macro events versus actual fundamentals, and fundamentals are driving the market,” said Thooft, who expects earnings to beat expectations.

The Dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell for the third day in a row. It fell 0.48 percent, with the euro up 0.66 percent to $1.1817.

On top of strong German export data, traders were also upbeat after one of the European Central Bank’s German policymakers called for an end to its stimulus.

The Catalan news also pared US Treasuries gains.

Benchmark 10-year notes were last up 6/32 in price to yield 2.3481 percent, from 2.368 percent late on Monday.

The 30-year bond was last up 14/32 in price to yield 2.884 percent, from 2.906 percent late on Monday.

They temporarily kicked the can (down the road) on Catalonia, an interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

In commodities, Brent oil prices pushed higher supported by Saudi export cuts in November and comments from OPEC and trading companies that the market is rebalancing after years of oversupply.

US crude settled up 2.7 percent while Brent settled 1.5 percent higher.

US crude was last up 2.76 percent to USD 50.95 per barrel and Brent was last at USD 56.58, up 1.42 percent on the day.

Gold prices also hit their highest in more than a week against the backdrop of a weaker dollar although expectations for another U.S. interest rate hike capped gains. Spot gold added 0.3 percent to USD 1,287.70 an ounce.


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Wall Street recedes from highs as quarterly Reports loom

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.06 percent to end at 22,761.07, while the S&P 500 lost 0.18 percent to 2,544.73. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.16 percent to 6,579.73.


Wall Street fell from record levels on Monday as gains in Microsoft and other technology stocks failed to offset a drop in General Electric and a slide in healthcare stocks.

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The S&P healthcare index moved 0.67 percent lower, weighed by a 3.61-percent slide in Medtronic after the medical device maker warned that its quarterly profit would be impacted after Hurricane Maria hit its operations in Puerto Rico.

The S&P 500 has rallied 14 percent in 2017 and last week hit record highs, buoyed by strong company earnings and enthusiasm that President Donald Trump will cut corporate taxes.

JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup will report profits on Thursday, kicking third-quarter corporate reporting season into high gear as investors look for strong growth to justify pricey valuations.
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“Unlike the restaurant chains, movie chains and homebuilders and some of the discretionary stocks hurt by the hurricanes, I don’t expect the banks to be affected by the non-recurring blips during the quarter,” said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Overall, earnings at S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased 4.8 percent last quarter, down from the double-digit growth recorded in the first two quarters of this year.

GE shares sank 3.94 percent after the conglomerate named a new CFO and said it gave activist investment firm Trian Fund Management a board seat.

Nvidia rose 2.26 percent and the S&P 500 information technology index added 0.24 percent, bringing its gain in 2017 to 28 percent.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.06 percent to end at 22,761.07, while the S&P 500 lost 0.18 percent to 2,544.73.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.16 percent to 6,579.73.

The CBOE Volatility index – Wall Street’s fear gauge – rose 0.77 points to 10.42, its highest in two weeks.

Shares of cinema stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings and Regal Entertainment fell more than 4 percent after domestic opening weekend ticket sales for science fiction sequel “Blade Runner 2049” fell short of expectations.

Also weighing on the healthcare sector, Express Scripts lost 5 percent after Raymond James downgraded the stock to “underperform” from “market perform”.

Tesla fell 3.91 percent after pushing back the unveiling of its big rig truck to mid-November.

Viacom slipped 6.37 percent after Citigroup downgraded the stock to “sell”, citing risks that pay-TV firms would stop carrying its channels.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.21-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.49-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

About 4.4 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, well below the 6.1 billion daily average for the past 20 trading days.


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Asian shares edge up ahead of China services data as the Turkish lira tumbles

 

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The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.71 percent on broad-based gains across its sub-indexes.

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Asia markets edged up early on Monday as investors in Asia awaited the release of China Caixin services PMI.

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.71 percent on broad-based gains across its sub-indexes. Major miners and gold stocks made significant gains: Rio Tinto was up 1.55 percent and Alacer Gold rose 3.14 percent. The energy sub-index underperformed the broader market, trading 0.01 percent below the flat line.

With Japan, South Korea and Taiwan markets closed for public holidays, investors are expected to turn their attention to China data as mainland markets resume trade after the week-long “Golden Week” holiday.

China September Caixin services and composite PMI are due at 9:45 a.m. HK/SIN while September foreign exchange reserves are expected later in the day.

Labor market data from the US showed a decline of 33,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 increase. The weaker-than-expected statistic was attributed to distortion from the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Despite the softer headline number, average hourly wages rose 0.5 percent last month while unemployment fell to its lowest level in more than 16 years.

Stocks stateside closed narrowly mixed on Friday following the data release. The Dow Jones industrial average finished the session just 0.01 percent, or 1.72 points, below the flat line at 22,773.67 while the Nasdaq added 0.07 percent to close at 6,590.18.

Meanwhile, the greenback, which originally edged up following the reported increase in wages last week, slid on news that North Korea was readying a new long-range missile test.

The Dollar index, which tracks the Dollar against a basket of currencies, was steady after Friday’s slide, standing at 93.737 at 8:11 a.m. HK/SIN. Against the Japanese currency, the greenback fetched 112.54 yen.

In economic news, several Federal Reserve officials indicated openness to an interest rate hike in December. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said Friday he was “open-minded” about another rate hike by year-end, while New York Fed President William Dudley said he thought it was “appropriate” for the central bank to continue removing accommodation.

Australia’s Mantra Group was among early market movers in the session. Shares of the hotel operator spiked after the company confirmed in a statement that it had received a takeover offer from Accor. Mantra Group stock was up 16.56 percent by 8:17 a.m. HK/SIN.

In other currencies, the Turkish lira sank on diplomatic tensions between the country and the US. The greenback gained some 4 percent against the Turkish currency earlier in the session and last fetched 3.7289 lire at 8:23 a.m. HK/SIN.

On the energy front, oil prices inched higher after tumbling on Friday when oversupply worries brought an end to a recent rally. Brent crude rose 0.14 percent to trade at USD 55.70 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.3 percent to trade at USD 49.44.


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WALL STREET NEWS; S&P 500 breaks record run on jobs data, drug chain drop

 

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.72 points, or 0.01 percent, to end at 22,773.67, the S&P 500 lost 2.74 points, or 0.11 percent, to 2,549.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.82 points, or 0.07 percent, to 6,590.18.

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The S&P 500 eased on Friday, ending a six-day run of record highs as the first monthly decline in US nonfarm jobs in seven years dampened sentiment and pharmacy shares fell on Amazon competition fears.

The Nasdaq ended up for a ninth straight day, however, and set its sixth straight record high close, its longest such streak since seven records in February.

Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health fell and were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 that Amazon was close to a decision on selling prescription drugs. Walgreens shares dropped 4.9 percent and CVS was down 4.9 percent, while Amazon shares rose 0.9 percent.

The Labor Department’s closely watched jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 33,000 in September as hurricanes Harvey and Irma left displaced workers temporarily unemployed and delayed hiring. A bright spot was a better-than-expected rise in average wages.

It’s been amazing how resilient our U.S. stock market has been, going up on no news or bad news, so there’s no surprise on a day where most people feel it was a mixed job report at best that the market actually is reacting in a way that makes sense.

“It’s a logical move for this illogical stock market.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.72 points, or 0.01 percent, to end at 22,773.67, the S&P 500 lost 2.74 points, or 0.11 percent, to 2,549.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.82 points, or 0.07 percent, to 6,590.18.

The benchmark’s slight decline follows a six-day run of record closing highs, its longest since 1997.

The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, bounced sharply after setting a record low close in the previous session.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, the Dow added 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq gained 1.5 percent.

Adding to the day’s worries was a report that North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile.

S&P energy index declined 0.8 percent as oil prices fell amid a bout of profit taking and the return of oversupply worries.

Shares of Costco dropped 6 percent after the warehouse club retailer reported a fall in gross margins. The stock was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.11-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges. That compares with the 6.2 billion daily average for the past 20 trading days.


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27 items Excluded from GST Rates, GST Rules for SMEs and Exporters Eased

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SMEs to file GST returns quarterly and not monthly, GST rates cut on 27 items, govt to refund input tax credit for July and August to exporters, says FM Arun Jaitley after a GST Council meeting

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Offering relief to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and exporters from the rigors of complying with the technology-oriented goods and services tax (GST), the federal indirect tax body, GST Council, on Friday announced a series of rule changes.

The Council also lowered tax rates on 27 products and a few services and asked a panel of state ministers to examine if the 18% GST on air-conditioned restaurants could be lowered, finance minister Arun Jaitley said after the meeting.


The Council decided to continue with two pre-GST era schemes that allow duty-free sourcing of materials for export production till March 2018, a move that will improve the liquidity of exporters by preventing their working capital from getting locked up in tax procedures.

The Council decided to clear all tax refund claims of exporters for July by 10 October and for August by 18 October. It introduced a 0.1% GST rate for merchant exporters, offering relief from the full applicable GST rates on their procurement. Merchant exporters do not manufacture products themselves but procure from others for shipping overseas.


Late on Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the recommendations will immensely help small and medium business.

The steps taken by the Council will provide urgent but temporary relief to SMEs, said V.K. Agarwal, former president of the Federation of Indian Small and Medium Enterprises.

Friday’s decisions will come into force over the next one week as they get notified. A system of immediate refunds is being prepared. A technology company will be hired to launch an e-wallet scheme by April 2018 with notional tax credits that exporters can use to procure goods without actually incurring a tax burden. 

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Federation of Indian Export Organizations president Ganesh Kumar Gupta said the introduction of an e-wallet will provide a permanent solution to the liquidity problem of exporters. “The early refund of GST for July and August will address liquidity concerns of exporters,” he added.

The Council also suspended till March a requirement that puts the onus of small businesses’ tax compliance on big businesses that source products from them.

“Big players pay the largest chunk of GST, while small taxpayers who pay nominal or nil tax face high compliance impact. We are relaxing their compliance burden,” said Jaitley.

More businesses—traders, restaurants, and manufacturers—can now sign up for a liberal quarterly tax return filing and payment scheme called the ‘composition scheme’ by raising the threshold to Rs1 crore of annual sales from Rs75 lakh. Under the scheme, a marginal flat rate of tax is levied.

Small businesses with sales up to Rs1.5 crore can also now file quarterly tax returns instead of monthly returns. Tax payments can also be made on a quarterly basis. This, together with the composition scheme, will cover most assessees. The return-filing relaxation is expected to ease the compliance burden as well as the heavy traffic on the last date for filing returns on GST Network.

The rule changes are in line with the assurance given by Modi on Wednesday that if “any sector needs temporary assistance” on account of structural reforms like GST, the government will provide it. The Council also reduced the tax rate on a few services such as job works (work farmed out to small units by manufacturers) in certain sectors from 12% to 5%.


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