Gold steady near 3-1/2 month high, focus on Trump economic policy

Gold prices held steady on Friday near 3-1/2-month highs hit in the previous session amid tempered expectations of a U.S. rate hike in March and as investors awaited clarity on President Donald Trump’s economic policy.

Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $1,249.37 per ounce at 0326 GMT after hitting its highest since Nov. 11, 2016 at $1,251.14 in the previous session. The metal has gained more than 1 % so far this week. U.S. gold futures were also firm at $1,250.80.  www.ripplesadvisory.com.

Spot gold may gain more to $1,278 as it has more or less broken above a resistance at $1,249, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

“Thursday’s action showed us that gold bugs assumed that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely stand pat in March and may not move until much later,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said.

Nafta Renegotiation Puts Mexico-Us Jeans Trade At Risk

The almost imminent renegotiation of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has put US-Mexico denim trade at risk. It is because nearly half of the jeans sold in the US are made in Mexico. Over 2,000 denim manufacturers spread through states of México, Durango, Puebla and Guanajuato together make second largest supplier base of jeans to the US.The bilateral trade of denim products consists mainly in the Mexican plants sewing jeans from fabric imported from the US. The final products are again shipped back for sale in the US market. There are also some companies that purchase denims that are 100% made in Mexico and sell them in the US. Mexico’s National Chamber of the

Apparel Industry (Canaive) estimates this annual denim trade at over $8 billion.This manufacturing-trade relation provides livelihood to over 125,000 people in Mexico and another 64,000 in the US, particularly in the states of North and South Carolina and Georgia, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA).Hence, the call given by US president Donald Trump to renegotiate NAFTA, especially US’ bilateral trade relations with Mexico, has put nearly 189,000 jobs at risk. Further, it would also mean that US buyers would end up paying more if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on products imported from Mexico.

IGC Raises Global Grain Forecast For 2016-17

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As per the International Grains Council (IGC), the forecast for global total grains production to 2.102 billion tonnes, up from 2.094 billion tonnes in January, and up from 2.006 billion in 2015-16. If realized, it would be the first time output has exceeded 2.1 billion tonnes. Total consumption was raised to 2.069 billion tonnes from 2.062 billion tonnes.

The IGC forecast world wheat production in 2016-17 at 752 million tonnes, unchanged from January and compared with the record outturn of 737 million tonnes in 2015-16. World wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 236 million tonnes, up from 235 million tonnes in January and up 15 million tonnes from 221 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC forecast 2016-17 maize production at 1.049 billion tonnes, up from 1.045 billion tonnes in January and compared with 973 million tonnes in 2015-16. The consumption projection was raised to 1.035 billion tonnes from 1.028 billion tonnes in January.Improved weather in South America led the IGC to raise its forecast for world soybean production, to 336 million tonnes, from 334 million in January. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was raised to 334 million tonnes from 333 million. The IGC said global trade is expected to increase to 139 million tonnes.

Wheat Futures Scale New Two Week Lows

Wheat  futures have scaled two week’s  lows   on the account of steady supplies in local mandies. As per latest data compiled by agriculture ministry , India’s wheat area has been increased to 31.8 million hectares in 2016-17, against the previous record of 31.5 million hectares planted in 2013-14.
The government agencies have also planned to procure 33 million tonnes of wheat this rabi season. This is almost 10% more than the procurement made in last season. The agencies has raised the targets in the wake of bumper production estimates in the current year. The NCDEX April futures declined by  1.33% today to close at Rs 1705 per quintal.
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Gold steady as investors look for rate hike clues from Fed

 Gold held firm on Wednesday after falling as much as 1 percent the session before, with investors waiting for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for clues on the timing of interest rate hikes.

 Spot gold was steady at $1,236 per ounce at 0336 GMT, while U.S. gold futures eased 0.2 percent to $1,237. Spot gold looks neutral in a range of $1,233-$1,240 per ounce, and an escape could suggest direction, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

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Gold has only risen since the beginning of this year, the market has some hesitation in moving up further but still (prices) have some way to go up.””Gold held up rather impressively on Tuesday despite a rising dollar (particularly against the euro) and soaring U.S. equity markets,” said INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir.

Gold is highly-sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while also boosting the dollar. 

OPEC sec gen says `too early` to say if supply deal should be extended

While confidence has returned to the oil market due to agreed output curbs, it is too early to say whether the landmark OPEC/non-OPEC supply deal should be extended, the group’s secretary general said on Tuesday.

“I think it would be very premature for the fact that the market is so dynamic it is becoming increasing challenging to forecast,” Mohammed Barkindo told reporters in London when asked about the possibility of a deeper cut when OPEC meets on May 25.

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 It is too early for us to begin second guessing what the chairman (Kuwait’s minister of oil) will eventually submit in his report to this conference,” he said. Barkindo also said he expected non-OPEC countries to raise their compliance.

COMMODITY MARKET UPDATE NEWS

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Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1009-1025.2.Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1147.20 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.0.60-.Mentha oil prices ended with losses amid muted demand in the domestic spot market.Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil pricesPressure also seen on the speculation the area under cultivation can increase this year resulting good production.

Naturalgas trading range for the day is 162-191.8.Natural gas dropped as forecasts continued to call for mostly warmer-than-normal weather in key regions across the U.S. for the rest of the winter.Prices of the heating fuel are down a whopping 29% so far this year as forecasts for warm winter weather weighed on heating demand expectations.Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.445 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. EIA, 12.4% lower than levels at this time a year ago.

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  1. कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स: खरीदें – 3640 , स्टॉपलॉस – 3610, लक्ष्य – 3695.
  2. सोना एमसीएक्स: बेचें – 29350, स्टॉपलॉस – 29450, लक्ष्य – 29100.