Wall Street rises with Oil prices, Earnings Optimism

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 205.6 points, or 0.81 percent, to 25,574.73, the S&P 500 gained 19.33 points, or 0.70 percent, to 2,767.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 58.21 points, or 0.81 percent, to 7,211.78.

Wall Street closed at record highs on Thursday as rising oil prices lifted energy stocks and investors bet on a strong U.S. corporate earnings season.

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The S&P energy sector closed up 2 percent as Brent crude went above $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2014, boosted by a surprise drop in US production and lower crude inventories.

The consumer discretionary sector saw strong gains in media and retail stocks, while the industrials index was helped by airlines after news from No. 2 US carrier Delta Air Lines.

“The unifying factor of today’s move and this whole week is a heightened confidence in the pace of economic activity. That helps explain the demand picture, which has oil up at USD 70,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 205.6 points, or 0.81 percent, to 25,574.73, the S&P 500 gained 19.33 points, or 0.70 percent, to 2,767.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 58.21 points, or 0.81 percent, to 7,211.78.

Wall Street had dropped on Wednesday, the first daily decline for S&P and Nasdaq in 2018, after a report China would slow U.S. government bond purchases and a report that US President Donald Trump would end a key trade agreement.

The major indexes pared gains briefly in late afternoon trading on Thursday after New York Fed President William Dudley said tax cuts could lead to economic overheating. He predicted above-trend GDP growth with rising inflation in 2018.

“Dudley is touching on something that investors should fear,” said Brian Battle, director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago. “The only threat to the stock market right now is high-interest rates. If rates are higher, the present value of equities is too high.”

Investors are betting on bullish quarterly earnings reports from big companies and details on savings from federal tax cuts. The reporting season kicks off in earnest on Friday, with results from the big U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co.

Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased by 11.8 percent in the recently-ended quarter, with the biggest gain from the energy sector.

“This market feels this week like a deep breath before the onslaught of earnings reports,” Clemons said. “This is a wait-and-see mode with a healthy amount of optimism.”

Delta Air Lines shares closed up 4.8 percent at USD 58.52 after it predicted a double benefit from the US corporate tax cut – savings on its own bill and an uptick in business travel as companies to spend tax savings. It also reported an upbeat quarterly profit.

Delta helped the Dow Jones US Airlines index close up 4.2 percent. The Dow Jones Transport index rose 2.3 percent – its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 29.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.40-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.18-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 107 new 52-week highs and 8 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 176 new highs and 18 new lows.

On US exchanges 6.74 billion shares changed hands, above the 6.39 billion average for the last 20 trading days.


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Sensex, Nifty trade higher despite Brent crude hits $70 a barrel

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Vedanta, IOC, and Indiabulls Housing Finance were other gainers.

Gold prices rose 0.26 percent to Rs 29,465 per 10 grams in futures trading today as speculators raised bets, tracking firm trend overseas.

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Gold for delivery in February was trading Rs 75, or 0.26 percent, higher at Rs 29,465 per 10 grams, in a business turnover of 376 lots.

Similarly, the metal for delivery in April was also trading higher by Rs 56, or 0.19 percent, at Rs 29,430 per 10 grams in 34 lots.

Midcap stocks witnessed a stellar rally last year with the Nifty Midcap index rising 50 percent in 2017. They were seen as one of the major reasons behind the market clocking fresh highs last year.

Speaking of different sectors, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are richly-valued. “They have gone through a bubble phase and we would want to stick to larger banks. PSU banks should do well. In the housing finance space, we are sticking to HDFC,” he told the channel.


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Indian Rupee gains 6 paise at 63.60 in early Trade

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Expect USD-INR pair to trade within 63.50-63.75 for the day.

The Indian Rupee opened higher by 6 paise at 63.60 per Dollar on Friday against previous close 63.66.

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Spot USD-INR has been see-sawing in the last few trading sessions basis both India positive news flows and movement in the Dollar index. Expect USD-INR pair to trade within 63.50-63.75 for the day.

The Indian 10-year benchmark yield has again started moving higher. Expect a range of 7.42-7.45 percent for today,

The Dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of major currencies edges lower on back of weak factory inflation data, while Euro strengthens after the European Central Bank hinted that it could be gearing up to trim its massive monetary stimulus.


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कैसे रहेंगे टीसीएस, इंडसइंड बैंक के नतीजे

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गुरुवार का दिन नतीजों के लिहाज से अहम है। 11 जनवरी से बड़े नतीजों की शुरुआत होगी। टीसीएस और इंडसइंड बैंक अपने नतीजे पेश करेंगे। कैसे रहेंगे ये नतीजे आइए जानते हैं

टीसीएस

अनुमान के मुताबिक वित्त वर्ष 2018 की तीसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस का मुनाफा 0.2 फीसदी की मामूली बढ़त के साथ 6,460 करोड़ रुपये रह सकता है। वित्त वर्ष 2018 की दूसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस का मुनाफा 6,446 करोड़ रुपये रहा था।

वित्त वर्ष 2018 की तीसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस की डॉलर आय 0.9 फीसदी बढ़कर 478.1 करोड़ डॉलर रह सकती है। वित्त वर्ष 2018 की दूसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस की डॉलर आय 473.9 करोड़ डॉलर रही थी।

वित्त वर्ष 2018 की तीसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस की रुपये में आय 1.4 फीसदी बढ़कर 30,960 करोड़ रुपये रह सकती है। वित्त वर्ष 2018 की दूसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस की रुपये में आय 30,541 करोड़ रुपये रही थी।

तिमाही दर तिमाही आधार पर तीसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस का एबिट 7,660 करोड़ रुपये से बढ़कर 7,987 करोड़ रुपये रहने का अनुमान है। तिमाही आधार पर तीसरी तिमाही में टीसीएस का एबिट मार्जिन 25.1 फीसदी से बढ़कर 25.8 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान है।

इंडसइंड बैंक

अनुमान के मुताबिक वित्त वर्ष 2018 की तीसरी तिमाही में इंडसइंड बैंक का मुनाफा 24.1 फीसदी बढ़कर 931.5 करोड़ रुपये रह सकता है। वित्त वर्ष 2017 की तीसरी तिमाही में इंडसइंड बैंक का मुनाफा 750.6 करोड़ रुपये रहा था।

वित्त वर्ष 2018 की तीसरी तिमाही में इंडसइंड बैंक की ब्याज आय 22 फीसदी बढ़कर 1,926.1 करोड़ रुपये रह सकती है। वित्त वर्ष 2017 की तीसरी तिमाही में इंडसइंड बैंक की ब्याज आय 1,578.4 करोड़ रुपये रही थी।

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इकोनॉमी में ग्रोथ से चमकेगा बाजार

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भारतीय इकोनॉमी तेजी से आगे बढ़ रही है। इकोनॉमी में तेजी के साथ ही बाजार में भी तेजी देखने को मिलेगी। इस बीच सरकार ने भी कई ढांचागत सुधार किए हैं जिससे प्राइवेट सेक्टर निवेश में भी बढ़त की उम्मीद दिख रही है। आगे कंपनियों के नतीजे अच्छे रहेंगे। 2018 में बाजार में अच्छे रिटर्न देखने को मिलेंगे।

इस बजट में शेयर बाजार पर लगने टैक्स में भी कुछ बदलाव की उम्मीद है, जिसके चलते बाजार में लॉन्ग टर्म कैपिटल गेन्स टैक्स की चर्चा हो रही है। इस बजट में ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों, बैंकिंग और कंजम्प्शन पर जोर होगा जिसको देखते हुए इन सेक्टर के शेयरों में बढ़त देखने को मिल सकती है।

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आगे बाजार से मिलेंगे अच्छे रिटर्न

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2018 में बाजार से 2017 जितने रिटर्न तो नहीं मिलेंगे। 2017 में फार्मा को छोड़कर सारे सेक्टर चले। 2018 में अगर 12-15 फीसदी रिटर्न मिल जाएं तो काफी अच्छा माना जाएगा। पिछले 13 साल से अगले 13 साल बाजार के लिए अच्छे रहेंगे। करेंसी की वैल्यू घटने से भारत में रिटर्न कम हुआ है।

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Institutional inflows help HDFC MF regain Top Spot

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Helped by institutional inflows, HDFC has regained the top spot in mutual fund rankings, overtaking ICICI mutual fund.

As per the December 31 end of period (EOP) assets under management (AUM), HDFC had assets worth Rs 2,93,011 crore, ahead of ICICI with Rs 2,82,068 crore.

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Industry sources, however, said that rankings traditionally have been based on Q-AAUM, or the quarterly assets under management, published by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) at the end of each quarter.

Also, EOP AUM ranking could again change as it accounts for AUM on a particular day and is largely dependent on the outflows on the last day of the period.

The sources said that as per Q-AAUM for the quarter to December 31, 2017, ICICI MF, with Rs 2,93,338 crore, still holds the top position, ahead of HDFC MF with Rs 2,89,168 crore.

The industry saw outflows of an estimated Rs 1,27,000 crore in liquid funds in the quarter to December 31, 2017. Liquid assets were at Rs 3,55,408 crore at the start of the quarter and stood at Rs 2,97,253 crore at its end.

As short-term institutional money is primarily invested in liquid funds, its outflow also affects the relative ranking of MF players.

Institutional money decides the ranking of mutual fund players as it accounts for Rs 11,00,000 crore or over 50 percent of the total MF industry assets of Rs 21,37,000 crore.

The bulk of the MF industry has been focusing on profitability as key criteria for ranking mutual fund players, as it factors in stable AUM growth with more sticky and retail assets rather than building the top line by accessing large corporate money.

Post-demonetisation, the MF industry has gained a lot of momentum, but it remains divided among those focusing on the top line for higher AUM growth and those emphasizing retail assets and seeking profitable growth.


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Financial Bidding process for NPA accounts by Month End

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India’s largest lender State Bank of India has said that it expects financial bidding process for resolution of 12 big stressed accounts to be over by the end of this month. As per reports, SBI is the lead banker in 6 out of 12 large NPAs with a total outstanding loan of Rs 1.75 lakh crore. Commenting on the issue, SBI Chairman Rajnish Kumar told the media, “Financial bids of Electrosteel and Monnet Ispat have already come. We hope to receive bids for remaining cases during this month itself.”

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“Other cases which are pending before the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) are Essar Steel, Bhushan Steel, Bhushan Power and Steel, Lanco Infra, Alok Industries, Amtek Auto, Era Infra, Jaypee Infratech, ABG Shipyard and Jyoti Structures,” he added. As per reports, RBI’s internal advisory committee (IAC) in June identified 12 accounts, each having more than Rs 5,000 crore of outstanding loans and accounting for 25 percent of total NPAs of banks.


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Asian shares Step back from New Year rally as Trade Concerns Resurface

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MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.1 percent in early trade, slipping further from Tuesday’s 10-year peak. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.6 percent.

The New Year rally in Asian shares ran out of steam on Thursday as concerns about the US administration’s protectionist stance hit Wall Street while US bonds were dented by speculation China may curtail buying.

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MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.1 percent in early trade, slipping further from Tuesday’s 10-year peak. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.6 percent.

US shares snapped their New Year rally on Wednesday while the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican peso fell after a sources report said Canada increasingly believes that US President Donald Trump will soon announce his intention to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement treaty.

US bond prices tumbled, boosting the benchmark 10-year Treasuries yield to a 10-month high of 2.597 percent after Bloomberg reported that China, the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries, could slow or stop buying government bonds.

“I would think that China is flexing its muscles as the United States is looking into measures to deal with its trade deficit with China,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

“I have been expecting rising trade frictions between the United States and China this year. It appears China is quick to touch the Achilles heel of the States,” he added.

Investigations into US imports are due to report to Trump this month, including probes into whether imports of steel and aluminum threaten US national security. A separate probe into Chinese intellectual property practices may also conclude as early as this month, Axios reported and could result in tariffs on the country’s consumer-electronics exports.

US Treasuries later pared some of their losses and the 10-year yield stood at 2.555 percent in early Asian trade.

The speculation that China may reduce its buying in US bonds helped to underpin the euro, the most obvious alternative assets to the Dollar.

The Euro traded at USD 1.1950, extending its rebound from Tuesday’s low of USD 1.1916.

Against the yen, the Dollar posted an even bigger fall of 1.1 percent on Wednesday, its largest decline in almost eight months.

It last stood at 111.40 Yen, after hitting a six-week low of 111.27 yen the previous day.

The Yen has been buoyed this week after a cut in the Bank of Japan’s bond buying on Tuesday fuelled speculation that the central bank could eventually seek to exit from its stimulus later this year, following in the footsteps of other major central banks.

The Canadian Dollar traded at CUSD 1.2559 per US Dollar after having lost 0.7 percent on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices jumped on Wednesday and settled near three-year highs after US government data showed a drop in crude inventories and production, though the fall in the latter could be the result of extremely cold temperatures across the United States.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at USD 63.47 per barrel, after hitting a high of USD 63.67 in the previous session, their loftiest level since December 2014.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 69.20 a barrel on Wednesday, up 38 cents. The session high for the global benchmark was USD 69.37, highest since May 2015.


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Indian ADRs: ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy’s Lab down

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Indian ADRs ended lower on Wednesday. Tata Motors slipped 1.43 percent and ICICI Bank shed 1.12 percent.

Indian ADRs ended lower on Wednesday. In the IT space, Infosys rose 1.49 percent at USD 16.99 and Wipro added 1.93 percent at USD 5.81.

In the banking space, ICICI Bank shed 1.12 percent at USD 9.71 and HDFC Bank declined 0.93 percent at USD 101.02.

In the other sectors, Tata Motors slipped 1.43 percent at USD 33.75 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories shed 0.73 percent at USD 37.95.

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