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The Reserve Bank of India is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting and through the end of next year, despite expectations that inflation will breach its 4 percent target in the next few months.
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The results, from a poll of economists taken over the past week, also found there is a bigger risk the next move is a cut, even though forecasts diverge in three directions starting from the second quarter of next year.
That suggests both that policymakers have little room for maneuver and the outlook for rates beyond the next few months is exceptionally fuzzy, with several respondents saying they were unwilling to look much beyond the turn of the year.
“In the RBI’s perception, inflation is inching up and the risks of that remaining high remain for a longer duration, say a couple of quarters or so, it may be difficult for the RBI to consider a rate cut around that scenario.
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